China exports, trade surplus figures announced
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/artic...2LReZbNsuruJB0A
(AFP) – 1 hour ago
BEIJING — China said Wednesday its exports in February soared for the third straight month and at the fastest pace in three years, underlining the nation's position as the world's leading exporter.
Overseas shipments grew 45.7 percent on-year last month to 94.5 billion dollars, the customs bureau said, cementing a turnaround that began in December when a year-long decline in exports ended.
China's export data is being closely watched for clues to the state of the world's third-largest economy and for signs of recovery in crisis-hit markets such as the United States and Europe.
Analysts said the export figures reflected improving demand for Chinese-made products, even though it was inflated by the low base of comparison in February 2009 when shipments plunged 25.7 percent due to the global crisis.
"It's obviously impacted by the low base effect but there were five fewer days in February this year than last year which makes this number pretty impressive," Royal Bank of Canada senior strategist Brian Jackson told AFP.
China's Lunar New Year, the nation's most important holiday, came in February this year.
The nation's trade surplus reached 7.61 billion dollars in February, the figures showed, up 57.2 percent compared with the same month last year.
China has been playing down expectations for a strong pick up in exports this year, with commerce minister Chen Deming saying at the weekend it could take up to three years to return to pre-financial crisis levels.
But Deutsche Bank economist Ma Jun said February's "very strong" data suggested Chen was "too pessimistic".
"We forecast this year's exports will sharply exceed expectations," Ma told AFP.
The data marked a continuation of a turnaround in December, when exports grew 17.7 percent, snapping a string of 13 straight declines.
In February, Germany surrendered to China the title of the top global exporter that it had claimed in 2003, as the European country's trade suffered its sharpest slump since 1950.
Full Version: China's February Trade Surplus Shrinks To $7.61 Billion
March 9, 2010, 11:53 p.m. EST · Recommend · Post:
China's February trade surplus shrinks to $7.6 billion
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-tr...nk=MW_news_stmp
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's trade surplus narrowed further in February to $7.6 billion from $14.2 billion in January because of soaring imports, according to government data released Wednesday.
China's trade surplus during the month came in lower than the $8 billion expected in a Reuters survey of economists, but was higher than the $6.4 billon estimated in a Dow Jones Newswires poll.
When compared with the same month last year, both exports and imports grew at a higher-than-expected rate, with the value of imports climbing 44.7%, reflecting growing domestic consumption on in mainland China. The value of outbound goods and services surged 45.7% from February 2009 on a recovery in demand for Chinese goods.
The growth in exports is likely to add to international pressure on China to allow the yuan, also known as the renminbi, to appreciate.
This performance does cement the case for a recalibration of China's exchange rate policy," said Royal Bank of Scotland economists in a note.
Since July 2008, China has restricted the local currency's movement to a very tight range around the 6.82 yuan to a U.S. dollar.
February's data compare with a 21% growth in exports in January, when imports surged by as much as 85.5%. But on a seasonally adjusted-basis, February exports dropped 2.2%, although the adjusted figure was still up 59.1% from the year-earlier month, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
Jing Ulrich, managing director and chairman of China equities and commodities at J.P. Morgan, said that just as a slump in exports hurt Chinese economic growth in 2009, the improving trend could add to the gross domestic product growth this year.
"Signs of the export recovery are broadening and can be found in rising container shipping rates, reported labor shortages in coastal manufacturing hubs and in renewed political pressure for renminbi (yuan) appreciation," she said.
"Improving exports and the seasonal pick up in manufacturing and construction activity will also support the demand outlook for commodities. However, elevated Chinese inventories lead us to expect a return to more normal monthly commodity import levels," Ulrich said.
China's February trade surplus shrinks to $7.6 billion
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-tr...nk=MW_news_stmp
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's trade surplus narrowed further in February to $7.6 billion from $14.2 billion in January because of soaring imports, according to government data released Wednesday.
China's trade surplus during the month came in lower than the $8 billion expected in a Reuters survey of economists, but was higher than the $6.4 billon estimated in a Dow Jones Newswires poll.
When compared with the same month last year, both exports and imports grew at a higher-than-expected rate, with the value of imports climbing 44.7%, reflecting growing domestic consumption on in mainland China. The value of outbound goods and services surged 45.7% from February 2009 on a recovery in demand for Chinese goods.
The growth in exports is likely to add to international pressure on China to allow the yuan, also known as the renminbi, to appreciate.
This performance does cement the case for a recalibration of China's exchange rate policy," said Royal Bank of Scotland economists in a note.
Since July 2008, China has restricted the local currency's movement to a very tight range around the 6.82 yuan to a U.S. dollar.
February's data compare with a 21% growth in exports in January, when imports surged by as much as 85.5%. But on a seasonally adjusted-basis, February exports dropped 2.2%, although the adjusted figure was still up 59.1% from the year-earlier month, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
Jing Ulrich, managing director and chairman of China equities and commodities at J.P. Morgan, said that just as a slump in exports hurt Chinese economic growth in 2009, the improving trend could add to the gross domestic product growth this year.
"Signs of the export recovery are broadening and can be found in rising container shipping rates, reported labor shortages in coastal manufacturing hubs and in renewed political pressure for renminbi (yuan) appreciation," she said.
"Improving exports and the seasonal pick up in manufacturing and construction activity will also support the demand outlook for commodities. However, elevated Chinese inventories lead us to expect a return to more normal monthly commodity import levels," Ulrich said.
Still,...we have to find somewhere to invest this 7.6 billion.
China's Car Sales Growth Is Absolutely Massive
Joe Weisenthal | Mar. 10, 2010, 11:11 AM | 1,047 | 6
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-car-...-massive-2010-3
In case you still had any doubt why China is loathe to sign onto some treaty that would limit their emissions, just get a load of the latest data on their market.
The following commentary and chart come courtesy of Waverly Advisors:
Chinese domestic automotive sales rose by 46.40% year-over-year in February to 1.21 million total units sold according to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, with the passenger car segment up by 55% from last February's levels and with estimated production levels for passenger cars slightly exceeding sales. To put this in context: With last month's Lunar New Year celebration taking up perhaps 30-40% of the total production and sales days with the two week long celebration and the annual visit home that millions of migrant workers make, these sale and production levels are enormous.
The Chinese automotive industry is continuing to ramp up capacity to meet demand. Changan Automobile, the 4th largest domestic producer by sales (and a strategic partner of Ford) yesterday reported 2009 total revenues up by 88.4% on a 64.1% increase in total units sold, adding that the company anticipates government policies will continue to support industry growth at the present pace for the foreseeable and that facility expansion will likely continue. Changan is not alone in ramping up capacity, smaller rival Chery, best known for compact cars, recently announced a new factory launch in Eros in inner Mongolia despite the fact that their new facilities in Wuhu and Dalian have not yet been completed. Indeed there are anecdotal media reports of worker shortages as factory workers failed to return to coastal regions after the new year celebration choosing instead to remain closer to home at new inland automotive factories.
Signals from Beijing do seem to indicate that the automotive industry will continue to receive special support even as tightening measures are implemented broadly. In a newspaper interview yesterday, Ministry of Industry head Li Yizhong reaffirmed the government’s commitment to subsidies for green automotive technology to help achieved the official target of 500k green cars on the streets before 2013.
Clearly the pace of sales and production growth must moderate over the coming quarters (and it will be years before any domestic producers are able to meaningfully compete in the export markets), but even as the incentive driven demand recedes the long term growth prospects remain massive. The primary questions facing the industry in the near term appear to be 1) is new capacity that is coming on board now really necessary or is there significant building now underway which is superfluous and 2) when will industry consolidation begin in earnest? Recent moves by Beijing to reign in provincial and municipal debt practices may be a turning point that helps drive smaller regional parts manufactures into the fold of larger firms, but the segment remains fragmented with opportunities abounding for greater efficiencies.
Joe Weisenthal | Mar. 10, 2010, 11:11 AM | 1,047 | 6
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-car-...-massive-2010-3
In case you still had any doubt why China is loathe to sign onto some treaty that would limit their emissions, just get a load of the latest data on their market.
The following commentary and chart come courtesy of Waverly Advisors:
Chinese domestic automotive sales rose by 46.40% year-over-year in February to 1.21 million total units sold according to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, with the passenger car segment up by 55% from last February's levels and with estimated production levels for passenger cars slightly exceeding sales. To put this in context: With last month's Lunar New Year celebration taking up perhaps 30-40% of the total production and sales days with the two week long celebration and the annual visit home that millions of migrant workers make, these sale and production levels are enormous.
The Chinese automotive industry is continuing to ramp up capacity to meet demand. Changan Automobile, the 4th largest domestic producer by sales (and a strategic partner of Ford) yesterday reported 2009 total revenues up by 88.4% on a 64.1% increase in total units sold, adding that the company anticipates government policies will continue to support industry growth at the present pace for the foreseeable and that facility expansion will likely continue. Changan is not alone in ramping up capacity, smaller rival Chery, best known for compact cars, recently announced a new factory launch in Eros in inner Mongolia despite the fact that their new facilities in Wuhu and Dalian have not yet been completed. Indeed there are anecdotal media reports of worker shortages as factory workers failed to return to coastal regions after the new year celebration choosing instead to remain closer to home at new inland automotive factories.
Signals from Beijing do seem to indicate that the automotive industry will continue to receive special support even as tightening measures are implemented broadly. In a newspaper interview yesterday, Ministry of Industry head Li Yizhong reaffirmed the government’s commitment to subsidies for green automotive technology to help achieved the official target of 500k green cars on the streets before 2013.
Clearly the pace of sales and production growth must moderate over the coming quarters (and it will be years before any domestic producers are able to meaningfully compete in the export markets), but even as the incentive driven demand recedes the long term growth prospects remain massive. The primary questions facing the industry in the near term appear to be 1) is new capacity that is coming on board now really necessary or is there significant building now underway which is superfluous and 2) when will industry consolidation begin in earnest? Recent moves by Beijing to reign in provincial and municipal debt practices may be a turning point that helps drive smaller regional parts manufactures into the fold of larger firms, but the segment remains fragmented with opportunities abounding for greater efficiencies.
Chinese inflation rises, fanning tightening talk
Langi Chiang and Simon Rabinovitch
BEIJING
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62A0FV20100311
Wed Mar 10, 2010 10:46pm ESTBEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese consumer inflation spurted to a 16-month high in February and a raft of economic data displayed broad-based strength, providing fresh arguments for policy tightening sooner rather than later.
The pace of credit growth halved in February, as expected, but some economists said the central bank would probably not wait long before increasing banks' required reserves for a third time this year and perhaps even raising borrowing costs.
"We believe more decisive policy tightening measures than those that have been implemented so far ... are needed to prevent the economy from overheating," Goldman Sachs economists Yu Song and Helen Qiao said in a note to clients.
Asian stocks .MIAPJ0000PUS fell more than 0.4 percent as investors priced in a tough policy response, while the main Shanghai stock index .SSEC surrendered early gains of about 0.6 percent to stand 0.3 percent lower in late morning trade.
Consumer price inflation quickened to 2.7 percent in the year to February from 1.5 percent in the year to January, handily beating forecasts of 2.3 percent.
Tao Wang, China economist for UBS in Beijing, said the increase largely reflected a low base of comparison in February 2009, when the economy was at its nadir.
"It will, though, give the market an expectation of a more imminent rate hike. Our forecast is that a rate hike should happen relatively soon, if not this month then probably early in the second quarter," she said.
CHEAP MONEY
Inflation now exceeds the 2.25 percent interest rate on 12-month certificates of deposit, raising the risk for policymakers that savers withdraw their cash from banks and plunge into the already bubbly property market.
Pipeline price pressures are also building.
Annual factory-gate inflation quickened to 5.4 percent in February from 4.3 percent in January. Economists had forecast 5.2 percent.
Factory output beat expectations, expanding 20.7 percent in January and February from year-earlier levels, while retail sales growth of 17.9 percent was just a touch lower than forecast. Both readings marked an acceleration from December.
Only urban investment in fixed assets such as roads and factories slowed from a year earlier, when the government was frantically rolling out its 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus package.
But investment growth of 26.6 percent in January and February still beat market forecasts of 26.0 percent.
The National Bureau of Statistics, which released the data, produces a combined figure for the first two months to iron out distortions introduced by the variable timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in February this year but in January in 2009.
Economists tied the underlying strength of the economy to the government's continuing pump-priming, recovering global growth -- export data for February released on Wednesday were surprisingly strong -- and the ready availability of cheap credit.
Although loan growth slowed to 700 billion yuan in February from 1.39 trillion in January, banks have already disbursed 28 percent of the full-year quota of 7.5 trillion set by the government. And the proceeds of a lot of last year's lending is still on deposit with banks, ready for companies to spend.
Yet not all economists believe major monetary tightening is imminent as policymakers are wary of the fragility of the global recovery. Moreover, they judge inflationary pressures have been exaggerated by the Lunar New Year holidays.
"We still think that the rate hike will be in the second half this year, not in the first half," said Ting Lu, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Langi Chiang and Simon Rabinovitch
BEIJING
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62A0FV20100311
Wed Mar 10, 2010 10:46pm ESTBEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese consumer inflation spurted to a 16-month high in February and a raft of economic data displayed broad-based strength, providing fresh arguments for policy tightening sooner rather than later.
The pace of credit growth halved in February, as expected, but some economists said the central bank would probably not wait long before increasing banks' required reserves for a third time this year and perhaps even raising borrowing costs.
"We believe more decisive policy tightening measures than those that have been implemented so far ... are needed to prevent the economy from overheating," Goldman Sachs economists Yu Song and Helen Qiao said in a note to clients.
Asian stocks .MIAPJ0000PUS fell more than 0.4 percent as investors priced in a tough policy response, while the main Shanghai stock index .SSEC surrendered early gains of about 0.6 percent to stand 0.3 percent lower in late morning trade.
Consumer price inflation quickened to 2.7 percent in the year to February from 1.5 percent in the year to January, handily beating forecasts of 2.3 percent.
Tao Wang, China economist for UBS in Beijing, said the increase largely reflected a low base of comparison in February 2009, when the economy was at its nadir.
"It will, though, give the market an expectation of a more imminent rate hike. Our forecast is that a rate hike should happen relatively soon, if not this month then probably early in the second quarter," she said.
CHEAP MONEY
Inflation now exceeds the 2.25 percent interest rate on 12-month certificates of deposit, raising the risk for policymakers that savers withdraw their cash from banks and plunge into the already bubbly property market.
Pipeline price pressures are also building.
Annual factory-gate inflation quickened to 5.4 percent in February from 4.3 percent in January. Economists had forecast 5.2 percent.
Factory output beat expectations, expanding 20.7 percent in January and February from year-earlier levels, while retail sales growth of 17.9 percent was just a touch lower than forecast. Both readings marked an acceleration from December.
Only urban investment in fixed assets such as roads and factories slowed from a year earlier, when the government was frantically rolling out its 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus package.
But investment growth of 26.6 percent in January and February still beat market forecasts of 26.0 percent.
The National Bureau of Statistics, which released the data, produces a combined figure for the first two months to iron out distortions introduced by the variable timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in February this year but in January in 2009.
Economists tied the underlying strength of the economy to the government's continuing pump-priming, recovering global growth -- export data for February released on Wednesday were surprisingly strong -- and the ready availability of cheap credit.
Although loan growth slowed to 700 billion yuan in February from 1.39 trillion in January, banks have already disbursed 28 percent of the full-year quota of 7.5 trillion set by the government. And the proceeds of a lot of last year's lending is still on deposit with banks, ready for companies to spend.
Yet not all economists believe major monetary tightening is imminent as policymakers are wary of the fragility of the global recovery. Moreover, they judge inflationary pressures have been exaggerated by the Lunar New Year holidays.
"We still think that the rate hike will be in the second half this year, not in the first half," said Ting Lu, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
For a developing and expanding economy like ours, some inflation, say ~3 - 4 percent a year, is a necessary evil.
QUOTE (macau boy @ Mar 12 2010, 12:50 AM) 
For a developing and expanding economy like ours, some inflation, say ~3 - 4 percent a year, is a necessary evil.
If we were to allow the same level of inflation as in India, where the latest CPI is 13%, we'd be growing at REAL annual rate of 20% plus.
China has become an economic beast. Folks should study the model of development, regulated capitalism really, and adopt it.
is all one can do when shown these figures.
is all one can do when shown these figures.
This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.