There is lot of talk about Pakistan using its strategic weapons first in case of full scale war, and then there is alot of talk Indian is not going to use its strategic weapons first, but will opt for second strike.
From a military point of view what options does Pakistan has available to ensure, neutralize or minimize the Indian second strike capability.

Pakistani military Intel estimate Indian strategic non conventional weapons to be around 100

Questions

1. If Pakistan is able to fully neutralize these Indian non conventional assets

2. How can Pakistan neutralize or minimize the second strike capability

3. What would be the Price to Pakistan

Second Strike assumes, a pakistani first strike takes out most of india's unconventional assets, and only some assets remain

at present these could be tactical nukes stored with SU-30MKI's, some mobile agni's, and possibly on indian ships (and in the future on indian submarines)

to take out the ships and submarines; the PN and PAF hunt's and kills nuclear weapons carrying vessels

to take out the agni's and tactical nukes it could be done from special ops and attacks buy cruise missiles

and if there is a launch, then ft-2000A could intercepts the missiles, or something better

this is basically all pakistan could try to do

The whole issue of India's primary & secondary strike options presume that India will not resort to ballistic missile strikes first &/or the cruise missiles such as the capable Brahmos. However, one must keep in mind, India is not likely to begin a war unless it excercises the option of lobbing the Brahmos, Agni & other ballistic weapons before the Su-30MKI, Mirage 2000H/TH, Jaguar & MiG-27 are ordered to attack ground targets. The BVS (Indian Air Force) seems to have concluded that without sufficient escort (& most aircraft expected to escort would be MiG-21, MiG-23 & perhaps MiG-29) won't be sufficient.

The MiG-21 & MiG-29 are range limited & have limited electronics as well. The MiG-23 isn't much better but at least has range but cannot compete with the likes of the F-7P & even Mirage III/5 in terms of manoevrability -& even if it could it'll be at the end of a long stretch- but the MiG-23 also has too many limitations. Put simply, they cannot summon enough escorts. The Mirage 2000H/TH may do some escort (but it will take them away from their strike/EW duties) & the Su-30MKI is too limited in numbers. The MiG-29SE upgrade (with N-019SE radar) can, to some degree solve problems & with IFR go considerably longer. However, they will still face logistical issues. As such, until the Su-30MKI, MiG-29SE, Mirage 2000H/TH are enhanced for escort, the Jaguar & MiG-27's missions will be undermined.

Put briefly, the Indians will not go up against Pakistani interceptors which are likely to inflict massive losses on Indian fighters. The safer option would be to exploit Pakistan's weaknesses in ABM technolgy now that India has developed sufficient missiles (ballistic & cruise) for such an occasion. The fact that they have also acquired the Tu-22M3 (eventually to come to BVS service) with the AS-15 cruise missile. I believe that India will fire 'Brahmos' & Agni from long range where Pakistani ABM (Anti-Ballistic-Missiles) are less effective. The HQ-2B (Chinese SA-2) are not sufficient enough & they would represent the best first strike for the Indians as it would mean fewer losses & massive destruction to the PAF/PA/PNS at the outset of the war thus 'softening' them enough for the Indian forces to move in.

the prime targets of the indian assault would be first and foremost the command centres, communications, logistics lines. hence karachi and qwader would be difinite targets and also rawalpini/islamabad. bringing lahore to a stand still would do great damage to trade. we do not have a suffiencent ABM shield. (no one has). they will attack us on our pressure points (places where maximum damage will be attained) they will try to reduce our ability to deploy troops, resuplys.

they have a huge air and naval advantage at the present. they also have a lot of agents in pakitan. so they would have a clear picture of what is happening in pakistan.

we should reduce their intelegence presence in pakistan and buy a valid ABM sam system technology which we can manufacture at home hence denying them the figures of it all...

we can use an integrated air command system like the one US used in iraq where all radars, ground intel, etc is displayed on one screen. this would alow us to track and engage targets more eficently. (target data transferred to the relevant batery via a data link from a central location.

Pakistan cannot neutralize india`s second strike capability (Period!)

The reasons are many but few that attract me are

Its humongous land mass you cant finish em off in the first wave however you can hurt em bad but not finish everything . India will still have resources at disposal to strike back at the much smaller Pakistan .

India is working on a Triad . Recently read Indians will be deploying nukes in sea pretty soon as well with some generous help from Russians and particularly the israelis . This gives India a much more powerful option to exercise in a second strike capability . Stretching missile installations deep into India also gives more room to save em from a Pak attack and be used later . The options also hit snags with the installation of a dedicated ABM .

Remember you cannot do it unless you hit it from both East and West at the SAME TIME !



I can bet a war between Pakistan and India aint gonna happen . Bad for US , very good for China and thats whats gonna keep it from happening . India and Pakistan`s nuclear exchange will just wipe out poor people on both sides setting back India , propelling chinese to a whole new level of Asian monopoly which will scare the living hell out of Europe and US the (Caucasian cultures butt kissed by India and Pakistan so well ) definitely not the same treatement from the Chinese can be expected .

Pakistan`s second strike options can be only at sea . They are working on acquisition issues with some countries in Asia and Europe for that . Dont have it yet but working on it . A sea ' N ' element is the best option for Pakistan although there aint gonna be any war in the first place . \../


Nukes in Sea , Nukes in Air , Nukes on Land should be made clear to the World . We aint the aggressors but we are gonna give a Nuclear wellcome to unwellcomed guests should be the manifesto . A force armed with Hydrogen bombs and Atomic bombs .

The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy's not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable.

SUN TZU ON THE ART OF WAR
THE OLDEST MILITARY TREATISE IN THE WORLD

It is correct that Pak cannot stop Indians for striking back but what does that mean? Can India stop Pak if it nukes India? And even if Pak is quiet and Indian launch masive attack then the fallout will be causing enoughheadaches for a few centuries. Second strike option is just a warning but it does not add much if the number if nukes are above certain number and both nations are linked together with a few thousand kilometer border... The discussion goes towards technical logic but what does it add in reality?

usman is correct. we cannot destroy their system.

but if you think about it we can bring india to its knees their financial hubs destroyed india will be a country of farmland and set back a couple of hundred years in developement terms. but we will be on our knees along side them. hence i do not see a war forthcoming. very rarely has any country started a war knowing they will be obliterated. so WAR is out of question. how ever readines for war will not stop thus greater and greater leaps will be made in the terms of acquiring war knowledge and technology. which is sort of a good thing. our armys can become power full in a couple of decades when the kashmir problem and the indian extremists parties are elimenated i can see two very good neighbours who are very well equiped and ready to defend them selfes against any advesery. at the current rate in 2020 i would think we can successfully reppell an invasion by a super power say USA, CHINA or Russia. that is if if kashmir is solved and extremists in india are viped out (eliminating the urges for war on both sides is very important for peace). we can enjoy relative ammunity.

i know it is not possible to destroy eveything, but trying to take out as much as possible could have been what webby was asking

but a good counter to indian first and second strike is a pakistani first and second strike capability (like the new russian amur 950 sub... if the chinese get it, develop a bootleg...and sell to us, and if each sub has a 180 day annual endurance, then 4 subs would be enough to field 20 nuclear cruise missiles at any given time on 2 subs, ensuring at least some missile make it through, hence a second strike capability)

also too nuetralize the effect of an indian first/secnd strike there needs to be redudancy

many command centers in pakistan, and mutiple overlapping network so that if some is destroyed, the war can still go on

a single fiber optic wire in which all information travels, is vernarble tyo even a small special forces team, but multiople networks will allow for redunancy and maintian command and control

here is the answer, i think usman made a good point.

"The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy's not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable.

SUN TZU ON THE ART OF WAR "

we should keep prepairing, slowly but surely get all the gizmos needed. indians have grown very ignorant in last 10 years. they think they are mighty, we must let them think that but we must keep building ourself.

All warfare is based on deception.

Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable;
when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we
are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away;
when far away, we must make him believe we are near.

Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder,
and crush him.

If he is secure at all points, be prepared for him.
If he is in superior strength, evade him.

If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to
irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.

If he is taking his ease, give him no rest.
If his forces are united, separate them.

I kind of agree with this. India's humongous land mass, is not that humongous in terms of development. It has 6-8 states that can be considered valuable and strategic (3 of them are south indian) and perhaps about 15-20 important cities, the rest of the country is mostly backward, backwater. Most parts look like its already nuked

India is huge but what efefct if Dilli and Mumbai or their tech region is nuked? Good reply indeed. But second strike is only handy if their is distance... None in this case.

second strike does not need distance, just survival

is a second strike capbility can evade the enmeis detection, and still be there to attack the enemy, the enemy will not use nuclear weapons (this is called MAD: Mutually Assured Distruction) and so concentrating on maintianing a viable first and second strike

Conceptually, a viable second strike capability cannot be destroyed, because by definition, it is meant to survive a first strike.

The key is to simply hope that deterrence is effective and it never comes down to a nuclear exchange. South Asia is moving very quickly towards a mature MAD strategy and hopefully towards stability.

I am suggesting another option. But I do not have enough data to validate it. Do we have a real understanding of India's nuclear command and control structure. From what I read in media reports, it seems that they have a weak command and control structure. On the top of it, India keeps their nukes away from Army control. Which means if we could start a first strike on New Delhi, Metros and all state capitals (India has 27 states). If we could use long range missiles on places like Andaman islands and if we use aircrafts for shorter ranges. We have effectively detroyed the command and control. Then I guess it is the question of managing the fallout.

Usman is correct, totally taking out thier 2nd strike capability is impossible.

You'd need incredible intelligence of the whereabouts of the nukes, as well as the missiles, the radar sites etc, which airbases are carrying the nuclear capable planes.

Also you'd have to find any SSBN's and take them out too.

I mean first and foremost, finding all these things needs massive resources and years of intelligence which is upto the minute accurate, then you need a huge SEAD capability and full access to thier airspace.

It's like you'd need to wipe out thier airforce, it's sam capability and then shoot them to bits with thousands of acurate bombs and cruise missiles.

It'd be a several month campaign of unsupressed attack, in our situation of nuclear strike followed by couter strike, no chance whatsoever.

yaay i can reply finaallly...

acha kher i do agree wid u takin out second stike is impossible
it can be delayed however.

in 65 Pakistan turned the tables on India by attackin al major air bases in teh east and denying India an adequate counter offensive for a considerable time. as a matter of fact aziz bahatti was not allowed to move in untill pathan kot WAS DESTROYED ( fLATTENED ACTUALLY, IT IS REFFERED TO AS TEH WORST AERIAL BOMBARDMENT AFTER PEARL HARBOUR)...my point here is that teh second strike capability in any area cannot be completly neutralized but delayed and tht can be a huge advantage for the the other side.

The delay in this 2nd strike capability is achioeved by takin out strategiclay complimentary assets. eg pathankot was a very activ base of India has it not been taken out Lahore or atleast a part of it wud have been in Indias hands as Pak was caught off guard with the surprise blitz attack by India

Similarly another example of the delay in second strike capability comes from Dwarkka.
Dawarka was very important in 65 as it was like PLan b for India. if Lahore blitz was to fail theen invasion was to start from Rann of kucth. after bombardment of Karachi port. Iaf carried put an attempt to take out a major chunk or KPT and karachi it self but failed to do so as they were flanked by PAF which had scrambled intpo various FOBs surrounding Karachi. After this it was imminent that Karachi will be attacked again first by air then by sea and land simultaneously. thus a major risk was taken to send out all most all of Pn to take out Dwarka oil installations which were proovin as a fillup for IAF planes to prevent the air attack
taking it out was necessary. itwas succesfull and thus the counter attack from teh failiure in lahore was delayed considerably this delya eventually forced India to consider a cease fire.

By the way i think this time around like previously saturation attacks will be used by Pakistan consisiting of witehr a BM storm or a cruise missile plus air strike to take out vital assets