148 replies to this topic

[Aliph Ahmed]

This thread is a virtual war game discussion thread between India and Pakistan on or before Setpember of 2010.

I am very concerned from the absurdly hawkish noises coming out of India. I believe that India will attack Pakistan before the equipment Pakistan has ordered for her defence arrives.

I would like to start off first with the current inventory of both countries as of today at their disposal for use minus

• The minimum equipment they must keep on other borders.
• The equipment (ships/tanks/planes and etc) under repair/overhaul.

Please be realistic and avoid:

• Emotional outbursts.
• Bringing in or counting on other countries.
• Adding equipment not arrived in your calculations.

After the inventory count, we can start off with scenarios leading both countries to war.

[Aliph Ahmed]

Pakistan Navy:

Destroyers:

Gearing (Taimor) Class -- 1

Frigates

Type-21 (Tariq) Class -- 6
F-22  -- 2 (possibly 3 by the end of july)

Missile & Patrol Boats

Huangfeng/Osa-I (Sabqat) Class Missile Boats -- 4 boats with 4 missiles each with 80 km range.
HEGU (Jalalat) Class Fast Attack Craft -- 4 boats with 2 missiles each with 45 km range.
Hoku Class Inshore Missile Boats -- 4 with 2 missiles each with 45 km range.
SHANGHAI II Class Fast Attack Craft -- 2 for coastal defence and no missiles.
TOWN Class Large Patrol Craft -- 1
LARKANA Class Large Patrol Craft --  1
Barkat Class Large Patrol Craft  --  1

Submarines:

Agosta 90Bs with AIP -- 3
Agosta 70 -- 2
Midget Submarines -- 3

Antishipping Missiles:

Approximately 500 antiship missiles that includes Harpoons, C6 series, C8 series, Exocets and etc. Range from 45 km to 300 km.

PN aviation:

Atlantique -- 1
P3C orions --  3 plus 4 more to arrive = 7 Also being upgraded to advance standards.
Mirage   -- 16 plus access to more planes from PAF
Antisubmarine helicopters - 2 (each one of f-22p is loaded with one z-9EC)

on a side note, third f-22p is already launched. expected to be completed in july 2010 where induction date is based on the past record which shows that it took PN to build almost 14 months to complete f-22p.

Edited by sobank, 25 January 2010 - 04:40 AM.

[Aliph Ahmed]

Indian Navy

Aircraft Carrier -- 0
Submarines

Kilo Class -- 10
HDW Class -- 4 -- Oxygen supply for only 8 hours !!
Foxtrot Class  -- 1 -- On verge of retired !!

Surface Fleet

Project 15 Delhi Class -- 3
Rajput (SNF) Class -- 5

Project 17 Shivalik Class 1

Talwar {Krivak III} Class 3
Project 16A Brahmaputra Class 3
Project 16 Godavari Class 2
Nilgiri {Leander} Class 4
Project 25A Kora Class 4
Project 25 Khukri Class 4
Project 1241RE Veer {Tarantul I} Class 11
Projeact 1241PE Abhay {Pauk II} Class 4

It must be noted that unlike PN, IN must keep a considerable number of her fleet on her eastern sea border towards China.

[Aliph Ahmed]

PN = 9 ships, atleast + 4 missile boats with long range missiles + 8 submarines + minimum of 24 armed planes.
IN = 30 ships (at 70% while the remaining 30% on Chinese border) +10 submarines and dependence on IAF for air cover.

PN will be on defensive and IN will be on the offensive. Some of the noted observations:

• IN will not have air cover of her naval air wing as no aircraft carrier.
• IN helicopters have limited night ability.
• IN can neither devote all her large surface fleet nor all her submarine fleet
• IN will be dependent on IAF for cover.

PN can devote all her large surface fleet, all submarines, all naval aircrafts, all missiles while keeping the small boats on western front.

[Aliph Ahmed]

In the event of war, PN should :

• block all Indian trade through the Strait of Hormuz which means no oil for India,
• let the missile boats enjoy field day destroying anything Indian.
• be able to protect the shipping lanes in her immediate neighbourhood.
• extensively use the C602 missiles and others to keep the IN 200 km away.
• be able to inflict heavy damage to the IN fleet on the offensive without air cover in the open sea.

[Aliph Ahmed]

Pakistan Army

Tanks -- 1,970 -- 80% capable of night fighting.

Al- Khalid -- 300
T80UD   -- 320
Type 85 IIAP -- 300
Al Zarrar -- 350
Type 69 II -- 200+
Type 63 --
Type 59 -- 500

APC -- 3,110

Al Fahad -- 140
Talha -- 450
M113 -- 1,100
BTR 70 -- 160
Otokar Akrep -- 1,260

Artillery (Self propelled and Towed) - 2, 106

M110 203 mm --  60 Tracked chassis.
M109A2 155 mm -- 200 Tracked chassis.
M109A5 155 mm -- 115 Tracked chassis.
NORINCO SH1 155 mm -- 90 6×6 wheeled chassis.

Towed artillery

M115 203 mm -- 40  
MKEK Panter 155 mm -- 12 Auxiliary power unit can propel the gun at up to 18 km/hr.
M198 155 mm 119 -- 95 plus 24 delivered in 1997. [58]
M114 155 mm -- 60  
M59 155 mm -- 30  
Type 59I 130 mm -- 200  
Type 54 122 mm -- 400  
Type 60 122 mm -- 200  
M56 105 mm -- 80  
M101 105 mm -- 300  
Type 56 85 mm -- 200

Attack Helicopters - 38

Cobra AH-1

Anti tank missiles: 1,000s X (?)

Tow2A
Baktar Shikan
Milan

Air defence -- Thousands of missiles and AA guns

[lein303]

Before we start with this "sophistacated"(<--- LMAO) wargame, lets get the basics.

For a defending army ie Pakistan, 1 soilder can hold ground up against 5-10 soilders depending on their training, specializations, etc... In case of Pakistan our infantry is alot more experienced than the indian infantry, because of the current and past wars in south waziristan, swat, and balochistan whereby the indians have only been engaged in a low level insurgency in kashmir and that to due the blessings of the ISI. Secondly coordination between armor, air calvary and infantry is also vital, in case of Pakistan we have real time situated C4I, and experience, whereby the Indians might have a C4I but they only have somewhat experience and that to through wargames (which dont take many scenario's/factors into play)

On the Ground, its safe to say we are very safe and could give a the indians a good fight

[Aliph Ahmed]

Indian Army

Tanks -- 3,610 -- Only 20% night time fighting capability

T-90s -- 310
T-72M -- 1,950
T55 -- 550
Vijayanta -- 800

APCs -- 2,300

BMP1 -- 700
BMP2 -- 900
OT62/64 -- 700

Artillery -- 5, 735

105mm LFG: 700+ (Being replaced by 130mm M-46 Field Gun)

105mm IFG Mk.1,2,3: 600+ (Being replaced by 130mm/155mm M-46 Field Gun)

122mm D-30: 550

130mm M-46: 750

155mm M-46: 35 guns upgraded to 155mm calibre, out of a total of 180 guns, as of March 2005.

155mm Bofors FH-77B: 410 (An estimated 100+ guns are cannibalized and are not operational)


Reserve Towed Artillery

75mm Mountain Howitzer: 900+

76mm M-48Mountain Gun: 215

88mm 25 Pounder: 800 (also used for training)

100mm M-1944: 350

180mm S-23: 100


Self-Propelled Artillery

105mm Abbot: 80

130mm Catapult M-46: 100+

Attack Helicopters -- Date NA

Anti tank missiles -- 1,000 x (?)

Airdefence -- Thousands of missiles and AA guns

[Aliph Ahmed]

Noted Observations:

• Though it is hard to calculate in the minimum number of equipment each side will keep on opposing borders, it is safe to assume that India will have to keep far more equipment on the Chinese and Bangladeshi border as compared to Pakistan having to keep on Afghanistan and Iranian border.
• Only 20% of India's 3,610 (722) can fight at night whereas Pakistan's 80% of 1,970 (1,576) can fight at night.
• Indian army has only 180 SP artillery guns Vs Pakistan army having 465 SP artillery guns
• Out of the 5,735 artillery pieces, India has only 3,470 are of 105 mm or greater whereas Out of the 2,106 artillery pieces, Pakistan has 1,906 that are 105 mm or greater.
• India has only about 2,300 APCs whereas Pakistan have 3,110 APCs.
• Both countries have thousands of anti tank missiles but the missiles will favor the defending country Pakistan.
• Both have thousands of AA guns but AA guns will favor the defending country Pakistan.

[Aliph Ahmed]

Surface to Surface Missiles = Pakistan

Ghauri 1 -- 1,500 km range -- In service
Ghauri II -- 2.000 km range -- In service
Shaheen I - 750 km range -- In service
Shaheen II -2,500 km Range -- In service
Hatf1 -- 70 km range -- In service.
Hatf1A -- 100 km Range -- In service
HatafB -- 100km Range -- In service
Abdali -- 180 km range -- In service
Ghaznavi - 290 km Range -- In service
M-11 -- 300 km Range -- In service

Cruise missiles

Babur -- 700 km range -- In service. Three versions available- naval, ground and air launched.

Note : Most of the Pakistani missiles except for the Ghauris are solid fueled and require 15-20 minute notice to be fired !!

Edited by sobank, 25 January 2010 - 04:43 AM.

[Aliph Ahmed]

Surface to Surface Missiles = India

Prithvi SS-150 - 15 launchers & 75 missiles in 333 Missile Group.  150 km range and in Service

Note.: Prithvi is a liquid fueled missile and requires couple of hours to be fired: First, two liquids store in two differnt containers are mixed and then the missile is fueled.

[Aliph Ahmed]

Noted Observation:

Pakistan will have:

• many more missiles at her disposal to fire at the intruding Indian forces
• much more missile target choices upto 700 km deep inside India suspected of providing the intruding Indian forces logisitical or other help.

[Aliph Ahmed]

Combat Aircraft -- India

MIG-21 -- 150 -- Link

Mig-27 -- less than 120 -- Link

Mig 29 -- 78 -- Link

Mirage 2000H –- 42 + 10 trainers -- Link

SU-30mki –- 120 -- Link

Jaguar -- 178

Approximately 698 out of which 202 are single engined

[Aliph Ahmed]

Combat Aircraft -- Pakistan

F-16 A/B – 46 in service, going upgrades in turkey . Further orders on the list.
10 F-16 C/D -- Approximately 10 to arrive by September 2010

JF-17 Thunder(China) – 24 by July 2010. 8 in service , further orders on the list.

Dassault Mirage 111(French) – 121 in service , 63 used as strike aircrafts., 60 modernised

Dassault Mirage 5(French)- 60 in service , 50 modernised

Chengdu F-7 Skybolt(China)- 192 in service , to be replaced by JF-17 by 2015

Nanchang A-5 (China)  -41 in service , to be replaced by JF-17 from 2010

That is a total of 494 planes. All of them are single engined.

[Aliph Ahmed]

Noted Observations:

• Indian Airforce has a clear edge in deployed BVR missiles quantitatively.  
• Pakistan airforce will have 24 JF-17s with SD-10s and 10 F-16s with AMRAAM C5 BVR missiles. Pakistani mirages are also rumored to possess BVR capability.
• Pakistan has clear edge in servicibility and turn around rate for having all single engine warplanes and in swarming the attacking Indian aircrafts within Pakistani airspace.
• Also, PAF pilots clock more hours than their IAF counterparts per year.

adding to the problems, IAF will have to face AA missiles.

Edited by sobank, 25 January 2010 - 04:47 AM.

[faizan khaliq]

Good Job Aliph just one observation
the serviceability/maintainability along with professionalism and experience might be key factors in success   of military operation but for the sake of plan and comparison we consider both forces at same level

[kaz89]

Woop Woop! I am finally a Senior Member!

  


Numbers and weapons dont neccessarily win wars! We need good tactics.

We need to establish which way the bhindianz will attack and where!

[aziqbal]

but any war will be highly technologically advanced, based on the weapons systems both nation posses, many "firsts" will be achieved, it will be cruise missile destroyers vs cruise missile destroyers and BVR fighters vs BVR fighters could get very confusing!!

one thing that is a danger to the Pakistan army divisions is the 10 Squadrons of Indian army aviation corps, who are equipped with over 500 helos and vast array of Israeli UAVs like Searcher and Heron

rolling our tanks out without aircover against HALs Light Combat Helicopter and Dhruv helos will be a big mistake, but on the plus side our cobra helicopter pilots can expertly defend our divisions because of the combat hours they have clocked up against the Taliban but numbers are too small, Pakistan army helicopters pilots are fighter aces with irreplaceable experience

another advantage Pakistan army has is night time operations and night time training, Pakistan army always fits its doctrine and training around night time training something Indians lack in a big way, during the night Indians will be no where near as organised compared to during the day so it would be the best time for Pakistan to conduct the bulk of its operations

Al-Khalid tank crews are very well trained at night time engagments even on youtube u can find them

Thanks for the input now stick to the topic please.

Edited by sobank, 25 January 2010 - 04:50 AM.

[Wing Commander]

I very much doubt the Indians would ever try such methods again for the time being.  The game has changed with the introduction of Nuclear weapons on both sides.  They have much more to lose (booming Indian economy) than we do in a war.  They maybe duplicitous but they are not stupid.  The fact remains, no one has ever declared war on a Nuclear power to date.  Even a conventional conflict between the 2 will inevitably end in a nuclear exchange.  To do so would be sheer suicide.

ps Aliph regarding JF17 I'm sure I read that the first JF 17 squadron was raised at PAF Peshawar.  A squadron is usually 12 planes (you have listed only 8).

lets not stray.

Edited by sobank, 25 January 2010 - 04:51 AM.

[sfhussain]

The first six weeks will be a High Tech War, both will expend their BVRs, Misssiles, anti-tank - tremendous damage will be inflicted on both militaries.
Not even Israelis could afford the high tech warfare for longer than a few weeks. Hizbollah then went on the offensive and forced israelis to   .
Indian thrust will be to cut off the Pakistan's resupply route from China.
The war would then be decided over months as who has the will and determination to outlast the other. I hope Pakistan military strategy is not to fight for six weeks and look around for a cease fire.
The Indian Strategy is cold start - that is grab a bunch of territory and then negotiate a settlement after the ceasefie is in effect. So far it is Pakistan strategy to counter this and not give India the advantage after ceasefire.
I think, and I could be wrong - Pakistan Strategy should be to take the Punishment for the first six (whatever) weeks, Preserve our military assets, then launch the counter strike into the heart of the Indian arrogance. First we would have them believing that ceasefire is imminent then surround the intruding Cold start formations (defacto offensive capability). Cut off Indians in Kashmir and strike down towards Bombay. East Punjab and Rajistan - In fact break their back and then continue a low intensity conflict with the aim to disintegrate india.

[faizan khaliq]

1.The next war will be an absolute war and will be fought at grandest scale.
2.It will shape up into nuclear exchange with in few days or may be start from nukes from day 1.
3.There will be survivors but very few and for few months contamination will prevent the outside population to fill in the gap but gradually the land will be reclaimed.
4.There might be no war and India is on losing end they are destroyed if they fight and they will be disintegrated if they don,t
5.Their only choice is make peace with Pakistan through just solution of Kashmir and stop having idiotic dreams  of greater India or be on path of sure destruction.Agreed that it is mutual destruction but Pakistan is much ahead of them in nuclear arsenal and Pakistan is in much better position to exploit centrifugal forces in India.

[safdar]

Ok another nice thread. Lets get this rolling. First off I’ve never ever posted in army or navy section and know absolutely nothing of their format, and this is a very complex operation for anyone to direct three forces air ground and navel at the same time, so I will draw first blood, using airpower. Someone else takes army and navy and so on… PAFs first objective will be to deny IAF air superiority over Pakistani airspace, which should last no more then 3 days.  

But before I start a little……….. vignette.

In 1965, the PAF was able to retain air superiority over India by retaining the element of surprise and scaring the living daylights out of Indian pilots by strategic use of the dozen F-104 Star Fighters in aid of the F-86 Sabres. In 1971, the war that was lost politically and on the ground, the PAF still came out on top with more than three times the number of kills than its Indian rivals. In his autobiography, renowned American pilot Chuck Yeager, the then attaché to Pakistan, wrote, “PAF is second to none… the air war lasted two weeks and the Pakistanis scored a three-to-one kill ratio, knocking out 102 Russian-made Indian jets and losing thirty four airplanes of their own… they were really good aggressive dogfighters and proficient in gunnery and air combat tactics. I was damned impressed. Those guys just lived and breathed flying.” Despite the numerical disadvantage, the PAF managed to keep up with the IAF over the first four decades since Pakistan’s inception through superior pilot training, as well as aircrafts which had qualitative edge over Indian planes. This prompted another American, Lt Gen Charles Horner, the architect of the air segment of the Gulf War, to declare that “Pakistan has one of the best most combat ready air forces in the world… For the Indian war planners, the Pakistan Air Force is their worst fear. Pakistani pilots are respected throughout the world…because they know how to fly and fight.” Saturday, December 20, 2008 Yasser Latif Hamdani. The News source..




Force projection on either side will take into account capabilities of their air power to obtain air superiority in order to safe guard their own assets and prevent retaliatory operations from the enemy. Airpower will be the first and foremost option and the biggest challenge that faces any air force are to identify the targets in order of priority that have to be eliminated/neutralised. India will attempt (1) strike (2) air superiority and finally (3) enabling ground operations, all of this could happen within days.  

If Pakistan can prevent Indian “ air strike” we then can prevent/disrupt air superiority and Indian ground operations respectively.

We know that IAF have Mig-29 and SU-30MKIs as the first option for strike, Mig-21/Mig-27  are ground support (CAS) as seen in kargil war also could be used for interception which PAF will intercept with A-7s and A-5s. Mig-27 and Jaguars are nuclear equipped aircrafts and Mirage 2000 interceptors also high altitude ground bombers, which might not see operations in the first instance of a air war. Indian air strike will be based on three basic principles; reach, payload and precision, and this depends on adequate basing facilities close enough to the battle theatre, which provides fuel, ammunition and most of all maintenance for fighters to perform, air2air refuelling ONLY resolves “reach” drawbacks in the absent of forward airbases, not ammunition and maintenance hence their projection is eliminated when forward air bases are operational, also SAMs are eliminated while intense air fights are under way over the LOC. Since Mig-29/Su-30 are the most dangerous. The Mig-29 radars are susceptible to jamming and not able to use BVR missile to their full range and have serious structural and engine problems, which make them not much match for F-16s and JF-17s alone and will be aided by SU-30MKIs aided with BVR’s which makes PAFs job extremely difficult and dangerous! How do we counter the MKIs and 29s as combined?. Well! Russians mass produce fighters in the view that fighters will have a short lived life in a full scale conflict hence minimum maintenance and serviceability is a inherent factor in the design phase of Russians fighters, and this is evident from two MKIs crashing and severe problems with Mig-29s. This is some thing that PAF should exploit to the full, NOT to take on the MKIs and 29s head on, but to render them grounded for longer by taking out forward airbases and airfields on the western boarders of India. And that is where F-16 A/B/C/D and JF-17s will come in with superior technology (explained further on) in attacking ground base targets and of course intercepting fighters when required but remain focus on the main objective of destroying air bases on the Indian western boarders.


Lets just look at the Indian forward airbases airfields and where the 29s and MKIs are stationed at the moment. (sorry cant upload modified map of indian airbases indicating my attack patterns in color will try)    

Forward air bases western & south western Indian air command: RED DOTS

Amristsar: aircraft dispersal area.
Bhatinda:  operating base for the Prithvi missile.
Sirsa: 9,100 foot long runway, possible aircraft dispersal area
Udhampur  2 squadrons each of 18 MIG-29s two squadrons of MiG-23s and a squadron of MiG- 21s
Ahmadabad: possible aircraft dispersal area
Nalia: possible aircraft dispersal area

Airfields western command: BLUE DOTS

Ambala:  home to Squadrons of nuclear equipped Jaguar aircraft.
Avantipur: aircraft dispersal area
Chandigarh: two squadrons of MiG- 21s. Base for IL-76 MD cargo aircraft
Halwara: 9,100 foot long runway, possible aircraft dispersal area
Hindan: base for nuclear-capable MiG-27 aircraft
Leh: 9,900 foot long runway, possible aircraft dispersal area
Palam: possible aircraft dispersal area
Pathankot: 10,200 foot long runway, possible base for Mig-21
Srinagar: 11,500 foot long runway, possible aircraft dispersal area

Allahabad: HQ Central Air Command: big red square. ACE!

SU-30MKI bases, Each squadron has 20 aircraft : BROWN DOTS

1 squadron in Jodhpur, Rajasthan (air defence of western boarders with Pakistan)
2 squadrons in Pune  (to defend key industrial belt, Jamnagar refinery, Kandla, Bombay High)
2 squadrons in Uttar Pradesh (to defend northern boarders from china, possibly western from PAK)
1 squadron in Assam. (to defend northern boarders from china)


From the above (in red) we can see that Udhampur forward airbase has 2 squadrons each of 18 MIG-29s and Jodhpur Rajasthan has one newly Su-30 MKI squadron stationed which are an immediate threat to Pakistan. As hostilities begin no doubt there will be air fights between older PAF and IAF fighters but these two bases will require immediate eliminations by PAF F-16 C/D using sniper pods in conjunction with Mirage III/JF-17s equipped with RAAD ALCMs. Since PAF will not take MKIs head on in a BVR fight, MKIs will resort to destroying PAF air bases like wise instead of chasing bait older fighters around Jammu/Kashmir air space (PAF has used this “bait” tactic in Kargil war, IAF did not fall for it), MKIs have LITENING pods ( no ALCMs on any fighter yet) but SNIPER pods have increased detection range at standoff ranges over any other pods and gives PAF the qualitative edge in targeting bases with precision cruise missiles, forcing 29s and MKIs back to Pune or Utter Pradesh air bases which already stations 2 squadrons (40+) each of MKIs guarding the industrial belt of India in Pune and Agra one of the most modern airbases in the world near Utter Pradesh. The reason why I think this plan will work is because PAF will have the element of surprise by attacking airbases inside India at the height of intense air warfare that will break out at the onset of hostilities with India over confident having a much better numerical edge in PAKs air space then PAF, but PAK having much better radar coverage of Pakistani air space and Indian western boarders will avoid MKIs to carry out air base eliminations at a much better/safer stand off ranges.

From the above projection (which is only 1 or 2 days into the war) I have eliminated/disrupted the IAF “air strike” and “air superiority” objectives by pushing remaining Mig-29s and MKIs deep into India requiring them to travel longer across India to reach PAK, subsequently 29s with limited range held out of PAK airspace due to structural problems preventing them carrying heavy external fuel loads and ammunition at the same time and MKIs requiring more maintenance for time spent in air and carrying heavier loads most of the duration, giving PAF more time to equip and be airborne and ready for the next encounter. I have severally disrupted close air support for Indian ground operations by pitting older f-7 f-5s against mig-21/27s but Indian navy is on the lose,  At this moment full scale high intensity war has broken out, every thing goes… from cruise missiles to BM‘s, navy army air force, and minus the nukes for god sakes!  

How do we counter air bases deep inside India equipping MKIs with BVRs to guard Indian airspace for Indian army force formation preparation for a ground assault? to eliminate further airborne threats faced by PAK cities and air bases from Indian long range bombers and PAK ground operations to initiate offensives inside India? SEAD operations to eliminate Indian mobile air defences targeting PAF close air support by cobra gunship protecting tank formations and infantry?  Disrupt Indian communications from the front line preventing back up calls or preventing withdraw orders reaching the front line from Indian HQ for a likely annihilation up front inside Pakistan? Eliminate air to air re-fuelers and heavy cargo airlifts for assault vehicles and paratroopers on the ground? prevent Indian navy blockading Pakistani shores and launching attacks from the flank? And preventing ballistic missiles launchers (TELs) dispersing over India?  


While all of the above is going on, how do we focus on eliminating all three targets below to win the war unanimously?  
  
1) Allahabad: HQ Central Air Command: big red square……………………………….............ACE!
2) Pune: key Indian industrial belt (possibly guarded by) 3 squadrons of MKIs……………king!
3) Agra: class air force station. base for military cargo transport…………………...Queen!





(p.s. if Iv gone terribly wrong somewhere pm me so I can correct it)

[sfhussain]

p.s. if Iv gone terribly wrong somewhere pm me so I can correct it)

You have done good. I have a curiousity - what happens in Air War after 4 weeks in your scenario if things go PAF's way?

[faizan khaliq]

You have done good. I have a curiousity - what happens in Air War after 4 weeks in your scenario if things go PAF's way?

The forward basis for example within 400 miles of the border can not be destroyed by missile strike alone(conventional)
The air crafts are in concrete shelters and until and unless a pin point hit is scored the damage is not done.
The Runways can be damaged but if  not followed up vigorously attack after attack enemy can repair them in no time.
  Safdars idea is not bad to force IAF to fight at extreme ranges under extreme conditions  according to his scenario I think the things will  start turning in favor of PAF when attrition on MK1 and Mig 29 will render them ineffective  but other than a nuclear strike knocking off forward basis and keep them non operational is bit too optimistic under present resources

[M_ZEE32]

Do we expect immediate help in form of J-10 and high tech weapons like P-11 and P-12 from china ?

[Skull-Buster]

As far as the armored battles are concerned, I think we will see something on the lines of the armored strategies employed in the 1965 war from india. India will try to thrust it armor into Pakistan first and foremost from the Lahore and Sialkot front. In both cases Pakistan's 6th Armored Division based at Kharian will face off against india's 1st Armored Division based at Ambala. India will try to open multiple fronts in the north just as it did in 1965. India would expect Pakistan to counter attack in Gurdaspur sector towards Pathankot cutting the only land route india has to Jammu and Kashmir. Hence india is likely to open another front in the Shakargarh sector before Pakistan can launch a counter attack in that area.

In the armored battles in the north, Pakistan's best bet is to sustain the indian thrust into Sialkot and Lahore and frustrate the indians in those sectors. Once this has been accomplished, Pakistan Army should increase its thrust towards Pathankot thus cutting India's connection with Jammu and Kashmir.

[Aliph Ahmed]

Ok another nice thread. Lets get this rolling. First off I’ve never ever posted in army or navy section and know absolutely nothing of their format, and this is a very complex operation for anyone to direct three forces air ground and navel at the same time, so I will draw first blood, using airpower. Someone else takes army and navy and so on… PAFs first objective will be to deny IAF air superiority over Pakistani airspace, which should last no more then 3 days.  

But before I start a little……….. vignette.

In 1965, the PAF was able to retain air superiority over India by retaining the element of surprise and scaring the living daylights out of Indian pilots by strategic use of the dozen F-104 Star Fighters in aid of the F-86 Sabres. In 1971, the war that was lost politically and on the ground, the PAF still came out on top with more than three times the number of kills than its Indian rivals. In his autobiography, renowned American pilot Chuck Yeager, the then attaché to Pakistan, wrote, “PAF is second to none… the air war lasted two weeks and the Pakistanis scored a three-to-one kill ratio, knocking out 102 Russian-made Indian jets and losing thirty four airplanes of their own… they were really good aggressive dogfighters and proficient in gunnery and air combat tactics. I was damned impressed. Those guys just lived and breathed flying.” Despite the numerical disadvantage, the PAF managed to keep up with the IAF over the first four decades since Pakistan’s inception through superior pilot training, as well as aircrafts which had qualitative edge over Indian planes. This prompted another American, Lt Gen Charles Horner, the architect of the air segment of the Gulf War, to declare that “Pakistan has one of the best most combat ready air forces in the world… For the Indian war planners, the Pakistan Air Force is their worst fear. Pakistani pilots are respected throughout the world…because they know how to fly and fight.” Saturday, December 20, 2008 Yasser Latif Hamdani. The News source..




Force projection on either side will take into account capabilities of their air power to obtain air superiority in order to safe guard their own assets and prevent retaliatory operations from the enemy. Airpower will be the first and foremost option and the biggest challenge that faces any air force are to identify the targets in order of priority that have to be eliminated/neutralised. India will attempt (1) strike (2) air superiority and finally (3) enabling ground operations, all of this could happen within days.  

If Pakistan can prevent Indian “ air strike” we then can prevent/disrupt air superiority and Indian ground operations respectively.

We know that IAF have Mig-29 and SU-30MKIs as the first option for strike, Mig-21/Mig-27  are ground support (CAS) as seen in kargil war also could be used for interception which PAF will intercept with A-7s and A-5s. Mig-27 and Jaguars are nuclear equipped aircrafts and Mirage 2000 interceptors also high altitude ground bombers, which might not see operations in the first instance of a air war. Indian air strike will be based on three basic principles; reach, payload and precision, and this depends on adequate basing facilities close enough to the battle theatre, which provides fuel, ammunition and most of all maintenance for fighters to perform, air2air refuelling ONLY resolves “reach” drawbacks in the absent of forward airbases, not ammunition and maintenance hence their projection is eliminated when forward air bases are operational, also SAMs are eliminated while intense air fights are under way over the LOC. Since Mig-29/Su-30 are the most dangerous. The Mig-29 radars are susceptible to jamming and not able to use BVR missile to their full range and have serious structural and engine problems, which make them not much match for F-16s and JF-17s alone and will be aided by SU-30MKIs aided with BVR’s which makes PAFs job extremely difficult and dangerous! How do we counter the MKIs and 29s as combined?. Well! Russians mass produce fighters in the view that fighters will have a short lived life in a full scale conflict hence minimum maintenance and serviceability is a inherent factor in the design phase of Russians fighters, and this is evident from two MKIs crashing and severe problems with Mig-29s. This is some thing that PAF should exploit to the full, NOT to take on the MKIs and 29s head on, but to render them grounded for longer by taking out forward airbases and airfields on the western boarders of India. And that is where F-16 A/B/C/D and JF-17s will come in with superior technology (explained further on) in attacking ground base targets and of course intercepting fighters when required but remain focus on the main objective of destroying air bases on the Indian western boarders.


Lets just look at the Indian forward airbases airfields and where the 29s and MKIs are stationed at the moment. (sorry cant upload modified map of indian airbases indicating my attack patterns in color will try)    

Forward air bases western & south western Indian air command: RED DOTS

Amristsar: aircraft dispersal area.
Bhatinda:  operating base for the Prithvi missile.
Sirsa: 9,100 foot long runway, possible aircraft dispersal area
Udhampur  2 squadrons each of 18 MIG-29s two squadrons of MiG-23s and a squadron of MiG- 21s
Ahmadabad: possible aircraft dispersal area
Nalia: possible aircraft dispersal area

Airfields western command: BLUE DOTS

Ambala:  home to Squadrons of nuclear equipped Jaguar aircraft.
Avantipur: aircraft dispersal area
Chandigarh: two squadrons of MiG- 21s. Base for IL-76 MD cargo aircraft
Halwara: 9,100 foot long runway, possible aircraft dispersal area
Hindan: base for nuclear-capable MiG-27 aircraft
Leh: 9,900 foot long runway, possible aircraft dispersal area
Palam: possible aircraft dispersal area
Pathankot: 10,200 foot long runway, possible base for Mig-21
Srinagar: 11,500 foot long runway, possible aircraft dispersal area

Allahabad: HQ Central Air Command: big red square. ACE!

SU-30MKI bases, Each squadron has 20 aircraft : BROWN DOTS

1 squadron in Jodhpur, Rajasthan (air defence of western boarders with Pakistan)
2 squadrons in Pune  (to defend key industrial belt, Jamnagar refinery, Kandla, Bombay High)
2 squadrons in Uttar Pradesh (to defend northern boarders from china, possibly western from PAK)
1 squadron in Assam. (to defend northern boarders from china)


From the above (in red) we can see that Udhampur forward airbase has 2 squadrons each of 18 MIG-29s and Jodhpur Rajasthan has one newly Su-30 MKI squadron stationed which are an immediate threat to Pakistan. As hostilities begin no doubt there will be air fights between older PAF and IAF fighters but these two bases will require immediate eliminations by PAF F-16 C/D using sniper pods in conjunction with Mirage III/JF-17s equipped with RAAD ALCMs. Since PAF will not take MKIs head on in a BVR fight, MKIs will resort to destroying PAF air bases like wise instead of chasing bait older fighters around Jammu/Kashmir air space (PAF has used this “bait” tactic in Kargil war, IAF did not fall for it), MKIs have LITENING pods ( no ALCMs on any fighter yet) but SNIPER pods have increased detection range at standoff ranges over any other pods and gives PAF the qualitative edge in targeting bases with precision cruise missiles, forcing 29s and MKIs back to Pune or Utter Pradesh air bases which already stations 2 squadrons (40+) each of MKIs guarding the industrial belt of India in Pune and Agra one of the most modern airbases in the world near Utter Pradesh. The reason why I think this plan will work is because PAF will have the element of surprise by attacking airbases inside India at the height of intense air warfare that will break out at the onset of hostilities with India over confident having a much better numerical edge in PAKs air space then PAF, but PAK having much better radar coverage of Pakistani air space and Indian western boarders will avoid MKIs to carry out air base eliminations at a much better/safer stand off ranges.

From the above projection (which is only 1 or 2 days into the war) I have eliminated/disrupted the IAF “air strike” and “air superiority” objectives by pushing remaining Mig-29s and MKIs deep into India requiring them to travel longer across India to reach PAK, subsequently 29s with limited range held out of PAK airspace due to structural problems preventing them carrying heavy external fuel loads and ammunition at the same time and MKIs requiring more maintenance for time spent in air and carrying heavier loads most of the duration, giving PAF more time to equip and be airborne and ready for the next encounter. I have severally disrupted close air support for Indian ground operations by pitting older f-7 f-5s against mig-21/27s but Indian navy is on the lose,  At this moment full scale high intensity war has broken out, every thing goes… from cruise missiles to BM‘s, navy army air force, and minus the nukes for god sakes!  

How do we counter air bases deep inside India equipping MKIs with BVRs to guard Indian airspace for Indian army force formation preparation for a ground assault? to eliminate further airborne threats faced by PAK cities and air bases from Indian long range bombers and PAK ground operations to initiate offensives inside India? SEAD operations to eliminate Indian mobile air defences targeting PAF close air support by cobra gunship protecting tank formations and infantry?  Disrupt Indian communications from the front line preventing back up calls or preventing withdraw orders reaching the front line from Indian HQ for a likely annihilation up front inside Pakistan? Eliminate air to air re-fuelers and heavy cargo airlifts for assault vehicles and paratroopers on the ground? prevent Indian navy blockading Pakistani shores and launching attacks from the flank? And preventing ballistic missiles launchers (TELs) dispersing over India?  


While all of the above is going on, how do we focus on eliminating all three targets below to win the war unanimously?  
  
1) Allahabad: HQ Central Air Command: big red square……………………………….............ACE!
2) Pune: key Indian industrial belt (possibly guarded by) 3 squadrons of MKIs……………king!
3) Agra: class air force station. base for military cargo transport…………………...Queen!





(p.s. if Iv gone terribly wrong somewhere pm me so I can correct it)

Awesome.  

I think the key is to contain the IAF.

In my opinion, Pakistan Air Force should litter any and every air field (capable of even flying a cessna) with clsuter bombs as far as 400 kms deep inside India.

and this should happen within the first 24 hours after the initial Indian Air Force attack on Pakistan !

[safdar]

You have done good. I have a curiousity - what happens in Air War after 4 weeks in your scenario if things go PAF's way?

Ok, that is a long way away (4 weeks), Iv only taken out two air bases ...  Udhampur air base (32.902712,75.154681),  Judhpur air base (32.902712,75.154681).  

What I want from eliminating these two bases and others (followed shortly how), I want all of Punjab and next I want ladurva rajisthan 26.964428,70.864105. permanently!!

all of jammu and kashmir will fall after taking all of punjab but only after ground invasion.but first I hjave to take Indian Punjab with out losing PAK punjab.

[lein303]

Lets play worse case scenario, its week 3 into the war and the whole PAF is whiped out, with the exception of a few airbases operating from the western belt. Life wont be easer for the indians, theyll still be facing an on-slought of baburs and other ballistic missiles targetting their airbases, in case of a war it is vital that Pakistan act first in the form of a pre-emptive strikes but this can also be a set-back in diplomatic terms as we'll be labelled aggressers

[sfhussain]

Lets play worse case scenario, its week 3 into the war and the whole PAF is whiped out

Dont forget that China will resupply fairly quickly.

[blueazure]

the Pakistani war doctrine calls for stratedic defence / offensive ops.

1) in the event of a war , dedicated "strike" corps will move and occupy designated enemy areas which would later on be used as a bargaining chip for land india captures

2) the PAF will perform air defence, air interdiction missions and will utilize its best to deny india air -superiority over Pakistani airspace

3) secondary missions include , attacking of indian airfields and deep strikes on strategic targets of interests,, ( by teams of dedicated Mirage V's , F 16's etc )

4) PN role will be defensive, to keep the shipping lanes open and to prevent india doing a naval blockade of karachi


no sane military commander wants a war , and, as per my limited knowledge and info, neither the Pakistani nor the indian military commanders want an all out , prolonged conflict that could spill into a nuke exchange.  i cant say anything about the wor mongering indian politicians and hawks. but for a military commander, firing shots is the last call


right now, the current game is to keep the status quo and keep a detterance as much as possible to prevent any mischiefs frm the other side (india).. they know this and will think twice before doing anything stupid

on the indian side, i dont know if its an all out war they want,wat  they are trying  is to bog down the Pakistani mil into LIC's and internal strifes . but still, the pak military seems to be doing a good job

the PAF is getting stronger day -by -day, if this was the 90's, i would be all gloomy,, but its not,

we have the BVR capability, blk 52 f 16's, J 10's on the way, JF 17's ready, AWACS, air to air refuellers, smart weopans, ALCM's, ... the posture is getting aggresive / offensive every passing day

in the end, history tells us, that neither of the two countries have fought a prolonged war,, but still,,,,...

[sfhussain]

on the indian side,

The Indians in general are in a "Teach Pakistan a Lesson Mode". Indians have a "napolean syndrome" alternately called "small dog syndrome". Indians in general feel they are a "super power" - hence time to tell Pakistan who is boss in the area. My personal opinion and I could be wrong - Indian Army maybe forced into a fight due to public opinion and with west blowing india out of proportions.

We will enter into this war with - Indiand grossly overestimating themselves and underestimating Pakistan". We in Pakistan grossly underestimate ourselves and grossly overestimate India. Two to four weeks into the fight the real picture will emerge.

[sobank]

as usual baray log dayr say aatay hein :)

You  guys made a one major major major mistake. (imagine how major mistake it is :) )

1- There is no time of invasion been set in this scenario. and this is not a small thing. Weather has always played a crucial role in classic wars and modern wars. And we totally forget to set a proper scenario in this regard.

If its summer then we have upper hand as the water supply is not short and also indians will be visible along with their choppers ready for getting a stinger. on the other hand, they have much more daytime fire power and daytime surveillance is just better when using satellite. Our tanks work better in heat anyway.  But in the night, Pakistani have the upper hand in training. indians will be much bigger red dots on infrared scans from satellite. But indian will have better hidden choppers, their tanks work better in the colder temprature.

In winter kashmir side will be hell for attacking party. In summer it will be easier. but then thar will be hell in summer.

2- This is a suggestion: pick one thing and one sector and then go from there. A battle of tanks in lahore is completely different than the one in sialkot.

3- Another major mistake in scenario: we dont know if india attack is a surpise or they announced it. And this is a fatal flaw in this scenario. depending on the situation, the strategy will be deeply affected. For example, take safdar scenario of destroying bases. well its all good but if india or Pakistan announces war, indians will be ready to receive us or will be coming to get us. In either case, consider todays tech, it will impossible for paf since a massive ground attack will be needed to wipe them out.

If its a surprise attack, well then we have to think about saving our bases. Above scenario of safdar will not apply.

  
Anyway think about it. pick a time for attack and conditions. otherwise this will become a mumbled never ending story like an indian movie which never seems to end.

[sfhussain]

pick a time for attack and conditions

When the next Mumbai style false flag attack occurs. Pick the time! date! wihtin days if not hours India will do the thing.

[safdar]

as usual baray log dayr say aatay hein :)

Anyway think about it. pick a time for attack and conditions. otherwise this will become a mumbled never ending story like an indian movie which never seems to end.

yes I understand that.....

But due to the close proximity of both air forces conditions have no relevance we cant attack and they cant attack in the moonsoon rains, day and night is equally applicable to both forces, ground attacks happen at night dogfights at day. Due to the extreme preparedness of both forces only the first air force airborne has a small window of pre-emptive strike on opposite bases which are pre-planned years ago.

I don’t see time and conditions having any relevance!

In my scenario I have drawn first blood at the moment of first intelligence of Indian ground troop preparations deep in India (PAK is still defending at this moment) I have pre-empt India and attacked air bases as re-planned, of course India has responded with their own plans but the following day after the attack at night all hell has broken lose in the skies over the LOC. Welcomed to the war.

[safdar]

In my opinion, Pakistan Air Force should litter any and every air field (capable of even flying a cessna) with clsuter bombs as far as 400 kms deep inside India.

and this should happen within the first 24 hours after the initial Indian Air Force attack on Pakistan !

Yeah. You second guessed me there....

We are now into the second or third day of the war! A number of fighters and air bases on both sides are partially damaged or completely destroyed, PAF F-16s and Mirages have successfully destroyed Udhampur and Judhpur airbases putting them out of commission permanently for time being and severally limiting mig-29 and MKIs threats coming over from the western Indian/Eastern PAK boarders and giving PAF time to regroup re-arm re-plane to further eliminate all forward airbases directly threatening PAK and that are operationally ready for retreating or short run sorties of  IAF.

Since PAF has also suffered airbase and runway damage also lost some fighters, PAF will use K-8 KARAKORUM.

K-8s in a real war situation are primarily used by PAF as replacement for attack helicopters which are in short supply to PAK army, K-8s equipped with BL755 cluster bombs are for anti tank roles and PL-7 AAM and auto gun sight + camera and 23 mm gun are for countering scout escort anti tank and utility helicopters, which by the way India has in greater numbers then PAK. There are some tradeoffs to this format of trainers against helicopters, see helli’s need more maintenance but no runways, K-8s require much less maintenance  but some runway, never the less K-8s in real Indo-Pak war will nock out those Indian dhruvs from the skies effortlessly…. anyway.. in my dream fantasy war scenario I will make an exception and use K-8s at this primary stages of the Indo-Pak war for attack purposes on limited defended Indian forward air base runways in Punjab (3 listed below), . K-8s equipped with BL755 cluster bombs could be used as cratering sub munitions, or to the advantage of area denial mines or to deny air operations and to retard repair activities of runways, no particular aerodynamic performance is required for these missions as the targets are fixed in  well known positions and the long approach path can be easily pre-planned with a CEP of 15-30 m, and these will be single run sorties whether or not the targets are destroyed is a common question during a battle, so I cant guarantee any results on that because the army needs those K-8s and we cannot risk losing them to man portable SAMs by allowing K-8s in and out over and over again for maximum target damage. PAF can use K-8s on the same partially destroyed PAF airbase runways due to K-8s short take-off and landing runs of only 500 meters, and with a maximum range of 755 nm is sufficient to land ground attacks on IAF runways where most of the air threat has been removed (29s/MKI) around those bases earlier. The K-8s will use Collins EFIS-86T blind flying instruments in the smog of war/night time, flying low avoiding Indian radars and no radar in K-8s rendering them immune from electronic warfare/jamming and using tactical air navigations (TACAN) from F-16 C/Ds, which will also provide escort and back up, this is the most logical choice in this scenario, instead of using PSD1-2/HAFR-1 anti-runway bombs by PAF F-16s, we free up F-16 A/Bs JF-17s and Mirage’s to continue interceptor roles against IAF MKIs and UAVs exploiting PAK air spaces, panic ensued IAF after losing two main air bases and many front line fighters/interceptors and further  Punjabi air bases in jeopardy will resort to attacking major cities Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad ripping up infrastructure to prevent any inevitable ground assault preparations by PAK army.

Forward air bases in Punjab need distroying.

Theses are not operating bases no IAF air squadrons are known to be stationed here.

Amristsar: 31.7123970,74.7963810
Bhatinda:  30.266667,74.750000
Sirsa: 29.562209,75.008637

Forward air bases need sparing.

Chandighar: 30.680278, 76.791944 Base for IL-76, probably fled after the fall of  Udhampur airbase.
Sirinagar: 33.986944, 74.776389
Pathankot: 10,200 foot long runway, possible base for Mig-21.


There is a parallel operation underway to eliminate most dangerous:  

Ambala:  home to Squadrons of nuclear equipped Jaguar aircraft.  30.370351, 76.817381
Ahmadabad: possible aircraft dispersal area 23.072175, 72.629142

Attack will follow shortly….

[bojangles]

The main goal of the PAF in the first couple days of the engagement should be to ensure Pakistani air superiority over Pakistani airspace itself.  Instead of using them for offensive purposes, we should use the Babur cruise missile extensively.  Main targets for the cruise missile would be radar installations, airbases and other targets which would prevent PAF air dominance in later days.  The range for the Babur is currently 700 km (this range is from March 2007, nearly 3 years ago).  The more the range is extended the greater the depth of air dominance we can achieve (obviously).  For comparison the Tomahawk cruise missile has a range of 2,500 km.  The price per Babur is not officially stated (if anyone knows, please add it), but we know the price of the Tomahawk (roughly $569,000).  Assuming the price per Babur is relatively the same (lower because of decreased developmental/labor costs, slightly higher because a lower number produced), a large quantity of Babur missiles can be procured.  Putting the price at $500,000 per missile, over a 1000 can be built for only $500 million (with the price per missile decreasing with each missile produced).  Effectively, a continuous barrage of cruise missiles in the first couple days would not only demoralize the Indians, but allow the PAF room to operate (depending on missile range).  Think Hezbollah on steroids, with far more accurate and lethal missiles.

[Aliph Ahmed]

The main goal of the PAF in the first couple days of the engagement should be to ensure Pakistani air superiority over Pakistani airspace itself.  Instead of using them for offensive purposes, we should use the Babur cruise missile extensively.  Main targets for the cruise missile would be radar installations, airbases and other targets which would prevent PAF air dominance in later days.  The range for the Babur is currently 700 km (this range is from March 2007, nearly 3 years ago).  The more the range is extended the greater the depth of air dominance we can achieve (obviously).  For comparison the Tomahawk cruise missile has a range of 2,500 km.  The price per Babur is not officially stated (if anyone knows, please add it), but we know the price of the Tomahawk (roughly $569,000).  Assuming the price per Babur is relatively the same (lower because of decreased developmental/labor costs, slightly higher because a lower number produced), a large quantity of Babur missiles can be procured.  Putting the price at $500,000 per missile, over a 1000 can be built for only $500 million (with the price per missile decreasing with each missile produced).  Effectively, a continuous barrage of cruise missiles in the first couple days would not only demoralize the Indians, but allow the PAF room to operate (depending on missile range).  Think Hezbollah on steroids, with far more accurate and lethal missiles.

From what we know, Pakistan already has inducted three batches (50-75 missiles per batch) so far and another test firing just around the corner for the 4th batch. (Each test fire means picking one at random from a batch and firing it to certify the rest as a quality control measure)

That means 200 ~ 300 babur Missiles by September 2010. and that is just Baburs.

Then Pakistan also have:

• Hatf1
• Hatf 1A
• HATF1B( With inertial guidance)
• Ghauri1
• Ghauri2
• Shaheen1
• Shaheen2
• Abdali
• M-11
• Ghaznavi
• plus air launched Ra'ad
• H2
• H4.

[Pak-Eye]

Here are my two cents:

1. Aggressive Airforce: which can neutralize endian airforce withn first 2-3 weeks
2. Aggressive Submarine fleet: which can affectively protect our seas and be able to make operations deep in endian ocean

These two will be the deciding factors before moving on to nuclear cards

[aziqbal]

either way if a war does happen between Pakistan and India the worlds military analysts will be here studying every engagment it would give the worlds military a wealth of knowlegde due to the high tech weapons that would be used by both sides

we've see one sided conflicts over and over again but none similar to this