26 replies to this topic

[wajman]

The PAF will have the following by estimates in 2015

250 Jf-17 block 1-2
40+24+18  =82 block 50- 20 f-16's avionics of all f-16 will be block 52 due to MLU
60+ f-7 pg
50+ j-10
mirage 100+ rose-II or III
3 eireye awacs
5 chines awacs
3-5 air refuelers

in my opinion we would need another 60 j-11bs and another 50 j-10 bringing the number of j-10s to 100. The 4 squadron's of j-11 will give us deep strike and air superiority  capability specially against the MKI's.

furthermore the additional requirement will become mandatory of India does go ahead and purchases the 126 mid level fighters

wajman  

[sobank]

To begin with, we never had air superiority since 90's  so first we have to achieve it and then comes the question of maintaining it. Secondly they have su-30 for a long time. They make them. I dont know which site you have been reading from but buddy not a single sane person will tell you to go buy f-16A/B and challenge them for a match with their latest block of f-16s.

Then comes a little matter of training. Indians know more about flaws of sukhoi platform since they have been in excercises with many countries. Your next come back will be chinese training and experience. well buddy between chinese training and experience and you having an experience force to fight with, there will be a long gap. which you wont be filling till 2015. And again, no matter how much you train to ride a donkey, you cant get into race with mustangs.

you need atleast one air refueler for each base. so even 5 wont cut it.
right now we have 5 types of planes. PAF wont be inducting a new old frame just to increase the number. Remember that in active service life, a plane cost at least twice of what it is worth. Example: typhoon actually costa 110 million (old figure) for each plane. where as the cost of typhoon was 60 million (old figure).

Why would we go through the sh|t load of trouble of buying another platform and then integrating it, is just beyond my comprehension.

What you should have suggested is to buy a total of 110  or 100 j10. why you didnt do that either, is again not understandable. perhaps you wanna through some light on that too.


By the way, indians are not sitting on their a$$es either. if their new purchase is not decided, they will keep putting in new su30s in. and they are getting awacs anyway.

Edited by sobank, 13 March 2009 - 12:00 AM.

[ZAKI]

Indians have been upgrading their fleets since it's independance and using MKIs since last decade and we have just now started modernizing again and have been sanctioned couple of times since independance

Indians have been upgrading their air force and will continue to do so in the future.......... I believe we will only decrease the edge they have currently but it will not help us maintaining air superiority in just 5 years

Indian Government spending billions of dollars on their Air Force, Navy and Nuclear Programs and we are facing financial crunch in all aspects so i would say better wait until 2020 until we are more indeginized in both Navy and Air Force so we could produce some cheap aircrafts and also export them to earn some more revenue

and also more soverign in economic sector and i hope we will start becoming independant soon after projects like Gwadar and COAL exports from Baluchistan and other industries that are being installed in Pakistan are up and running and we may generate some good amount of money from our Natural Resources too

First at the moment we should focus on our economy and try to acquire more Transfer of technology in Submarines, Frigates and Aircrafts in the meanwhile

later on we can start rebuilding our all three armed forces again

[aziqbal]

if the Pakistan air force can make 260 JF17 and 140 FC-20 forget Indian air force no airforce in the world will be able to cross Pakistan

Pakistani fighter aces in JF17 and FC-20 is second to none combination

[tank131]

Firstly, at this stage, inducting the J-11B is a useless and money wasting expenditure for the PAF... the J-10B will be more capable in A2A combat considering it has a more modern airframe (including better stealth characteristics), will be more manouverable, carry nearly as much weaponry, and is more upgradable.  The J-11 is going to be more expensive and more difficult to maintain and offer very little in the way of improved capabilities over the J-10.  On top of that, when you add another AC type, you greatly increase logistical problems...look at the USAF, it operates only 3 Fighter types at present (F-16, F-15, F-22)...the F-16 will eventually be replaced by F-35 in large numbers but even if not completely replace only 4 fighter types.  PAFs goal is to operate only 3 fighter types by 2015.

PAF will consist of:
250 JF-17 (many will likely have AESA upgrades by then)
82 F-16s (64 MLU and 18 block 52+)
40 J-10B (w/ AESA, TVC, etc)
TOTAL: 372 advanced front line fighters

4-5 Erieye AW&EC
5 Chinese AWACs
5 Refuelers

From what I understand from a family friend in the PAF, the total J-10B requirements will be 150 (the additional 100 to completely replace the F-16 in the long run)...so more of those will be on the way.  

By 2020 you will also be looking at the J-XX

Whether PAF will be able to keep air superiority in a sustained manner over Pakistan against the IAF is not for sure, but what will be for sure is that IAF will not be able to sustain air superiority over Pakistan for any period of time.

Additional proof is that the MKI which is their top of the line fighter has been proven in exercises to not be the beast everyone makes it out to be...is it a scary fighter...for sure but not as impregnable as people think.  The MRCA will likely be countered by J-XX and will be in very small numbers by 2015 (if any decision has even been taken by then).  Also, depending on the electronics suite on J-10B, it may not even be that superior to what the FC-20 may be equiped with.

[wajman]

To begin with, we never had air superiority since 90's  so first we have to achieve it and then comes the question of maintaining it. Secondly they have su-30 for a long time. They make them. I dont know which site you have been reading from but buddy not a single sane person will tell you to go buy f-16A/B and challenge them for a match with their latest block of f-16s.

1) I mean over Pakistani air space and limited supperioirty for strike missions. even today India can only achieve limited air superiority  over Pakistan.

2) The avonincs package for the MLU upgraded is the same as a block 52 f-16 so its capable of using the aim 120 C a proven platform + the huge radar of the MKI will not give the aircraft an advantage as the f-16's and mirages will be covered by an AWACS.

The MLU avionics upgrde kits being designed for Pakistani F-16A/B's will include: APG-68(V)9 radar; Embedded GPS/INS (EGI); Link-16 data link; APX-113 Advanced Identify Friend or Foe (AIFF); Color Cockpit with Color Moving Map; ALQ-211(V)9 Advanced Integrated Defensive Electronic Warfare Suite (AIDEWS) Pod; Night Vision Imaging System (NVIS) Cockpit and External Lighting; Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod; Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS); Reconnaissance Pod capability; improved avionics systems; JDAM capability; EGBU capability; AIM-120 AMRAAM capability and AGM-84 Harpoon capability.

ref 1


3) the MKI is huge meaning a higer RCS so will light up like a chirstmas tree on our  radars.

Then comes a little matter of training. Indians know more about flaws of sukhoi platform since they have been in excercises with many countries. Your next come back will be chinese training and experience. well buddy between chinese training and experience and you having an experience force to fight with, there will be a long gap. which you wont be filling till 2015. And again, no matter how much you train to ride a donkey, you cant get into race with mustangs.

I agree  but the topic does say that this disscusion is about 2015 onwards not today.

you need atleast one air refueler for each base. so even 5 wont cut it.
right now we have 5 types of planes. PAF wont be inducting a new old frame just to increase the number. Remember that in active service life, a plane cost at least twice of what it is worth. Example: typhoon actually costa 110 million (old figure) for each plane. where as the cost of typhoon was 60 million (old figure).

in 2015 we would have 3 types of ac  at most 4 if u include j-11b

1) f-7pg point defence
2) f-16
3) jf-17
4)j-11b

about the tankers no we would need at most 5- 2 in the air 2 on the ground for refuleing and 1 in repair this should increase our cap capability to double the loiter time. + would allow us to top up stike elements.

Why would we go through the sh|t load of trouble of buying another platform and then integrating it, is just beyond my comprehension.

beacuse j-11b as a deffencive / offenive platform would be a massive force multipiler to deter the 180 mki's+ it could be used as a mini awacs a lot like the  inranian f-14's

What you should have suggested is to buy a total of 110  or 100 j10. why you didnt do that either, is again not understandable. perhaps you wanna through some light on that too.

I did 50 +50 =100. but j-10 are limited by thier range so for deep stike missions not all that recommneded.If j-10's are used as a stike plaform with j-11's watching thier back might give us limited edge inlimited strike.

By the way, indians are not sitting on their a$$es either. if their new purchase is not decided, they will keep putting in new su30s in. and they are getting awacs anyway.

some how i doubt that indian procurment has been skettchy at best. probably we will go for mig-29's or f-18. the down side of all this is these still are more expnecive aircraft to mainitan.

to summarize at the end 300-400 BVR capapable aircraft (jf-17 250 bvr capable)  backed by awacs and higher loiter time dure to refueling would be very diffcult to overccome for any airforce including the IAF

reagards
Wajman  

[Saqr]

Just to clear up some things:

The PAF fleet by 2015 is expected to include the following:

• 250 JF-17
• 18 F-16C/D Block-52+ w/option for 18 more
• 46 F-16A/B MLU w/possible 14 more
• 36-40 FC-20/J-10B?
• 4 Erieye AEW&C
• 4 ZDK03 AEW&C
• 4 IL-78 IFR

I think we should note that PAF is paying heavily for the Block-52+ in terms of infrastructure costs, and hence sees the Falcon as a long-term solution.  If Pakistan maintains a basic commercial relationship with the United States, I honestly believe the new-built F-16 fleet could reach as high as 55~75.  We should also expect additional FC-20, though I am not sure how high the numbers will be by 2019.  Like some I also suspect that FC-20 is the J-10B, and believe it to be a proper 4.5 generation fighter.

[GreenBeret]

If u talk abt air-superiority,thats a tough one for PAF even in 2015.The underestimated JF-17 can give even SU30-MKI a tough time in A-2-A combat with best results under AWACS cover but it cannot perform long CAP's as MKI,neither can it be a deep strike capable aircraft unless CFT's are installed and worthwhile payload capability is increased.The edge JF-17 can have over MKI is its easy replacement for losses.
The talk abt FC-20 is mostly speculations as on statements of ACM PAF.It will however be customized Multi-role a/c, a plane more capable than F-16Block52+.FC-20 may very well be the strike a/c that PAF will use after retirement of the Mirage-3's.I am sure J-11B has been evaluated by PAF but it may have its own reasons for not inducting it.Using its radar as a mini AWACS is a good idea,but thats doesnt mean to buy the new plane,the radar can be incorporated in someother aircraft aslo like FC-20.
Induction of any new aircraft other than Jf-17,F-16 and FC-20 may depend on India MRCA aquisition.

Upto 250 JF-17 can replace all the F-7's(~120) except F-7PG,A-5 (~40) and Non-rose Mirages(~60).
18 F-16 Block 52+  will usually be used as deep strike aircraft and for SEAD missions where as the F-16 MLU (~44) will be used escorts for strike aircraft or CAP along with JF-17.
36~40 FC-20 can replace the Mirage Rose(~60) along with 18 F-16 Block 52+.

All this line up replaces most of old aircraft but doesnt add in numbers/squadrons unless more JF-17 or FC-20 are procured.Having  additional (100+) FC-20 can also be used as replacement for F-16 MLU.

[lein303]

The PAF fleet by 2015 under my estimates will include

-200-250 JF-17
-36 F-16 C/D
-50-60 F-16 MLU
-36 J-10's
-??? (unspecified) Number of FC-20's

According what I have analyzed the 36 J-10's that the PAF is currently purchasing are a stop gap measure for the lack of new F-16's PAF will buy, these will be the exact same J-10's that are in service with China and are similar to the JF-17 (software wise). Although there is alot of confusion going around let me clear one thing up the FC-20 are basically upgraded Chinese J-10's (With Chinese engine/AESA radar) it is likely that the PAF will further upgrade this aircraft with more advanced ESM/AESA. Now lets look at what the IAF might have by 2015

-190-250 SU-30MKI
-50 Mig-29's
-40 Mirage 2000's
-126 MRCA's
-100-150 LCA

[Dizasta]

For Pakistan Air Force to gain any sort of air superiority against the indians over indian airspace it would need to re-evaluate its fleet logistics and numerical standing. That would require it to have complete transfer of technology of the FC-20s (which would cost money). It would also require Pakistan Air Force to bump up the number of FC-20s from just 40 to around 150 and above. Then with (150) FC-20s, (250) JF-17s it would also need to consolidate on its F-16 fleet which would need to be around a 100. After which it would also need to keep three plus one option open and aquire around (50) RF-3 Rafales or (40) Typhoons.

However, if Pakistan wants to sustain air superiority over its own air space, then its a totally different ball game. Whereby the number of fighter doesn't need to be 600+ aircrafts. Rather it would consolidate on its procurement program with nominally increasing the fleet strength with (125) FC-20s, (250) JF-17s & (70) F-16s. Along with it though, they would have to however, proliferate high-med-low altitudes SAMs and back them up with the already predicted strength of AEWs (around 8 which includes 4 Swedish and 4 Chinese). Pakistan Air force would need to procure Electronic Warefare aircrafts like the AGS/RS Embraers.

A combination of Thunders, Vanguards, Vipers, Erieyes, ZDK03, Spadas, HQ-9s, AGS/RS and P-99s would ensure the total dominance of Pakistan Air Force over its own air space. No amount of Flankers, Fulcrums, Mirages, Jaguars and Floggers would be able to gain any air superiority in Pakistani air space then, Insha-Allah.

[Londo Molari]

Given current inventory and procurement plans, PAF will be in a much stronger position vs. InAF in 2015 than it is today, Insh'Allah.

[wajman]

If u talk abt air-superiority,thats a tough one for PAF even in 2015.The underestimated JF-17 can give even SU30-MKI a tough time in A-2-A combat with best results under AWACS cover but it cannot perform long CAP's as MKI,neither can it be a deep strike capable aircraft unless CFT's are installed and worthwhile payload capability is increased.The edge JF-17 can have over MKI is its easy replacement for losses.
The talk abt FC-20 is mostly speculations as on statements of ACM PAF.It will however be customized Multi-role a/c, a plane more capable than F-16Block52+.FC-20 may very well be the strike a/c that PAF will use after retirement of the Mirage-3's.I am sure J-11B has been evaluated by PAF but it may have its own reasons for not inducting it.Using its radar as a mini AWACS is a good idea,but thats doesnt mean to buy the new plane,the radar can be incorporated in someother aircraft aslo like FC-20.
Induction of any new aircraft other than Jf-17,F-16 and FC-20 may depend on India MRCA aquisition.

Upto 250 JF-17 can replace all the F-7's(~120) except F-7PG,A-5 (~40) and Non-rose Mirages(~60).
18 F-16 Block 52+  will usually be used as deep strike aircraft and for SEAD missions where as the F-16 MLU (~44) will be used escorts for strike aircraft or CAP along with JF-17.
36~40 FC-20 can replace the Mirage Rose(~60) along with 18 F-16 Block 52+.

All this line up replaces most of old aircraft but doesnt add in numbers/squadrons unless more JF-17 or FC-20 are procured.Having  additional (100+) FC-20 can also be used as replacement for F-16 MLU.

i agree with you totaly the  idea is 100% air-superiority over Pakistan's airspace and LIMITED STIKE CAPABILTY over indian airspace by limited i mean taking out the 8 FOB of inida and give CAS to the army + take out artilary  and armoured units in indian airspace.

wajman  

[wajman]

The PAF fleet by 2015 under my estimates will include

-200-250 JF-17
-36 F-16 C/D
-50-60 F-16 MLU
-36 J-10's
-??? (unspecified) Number of FC-20's

According what I have analyzed the 36 J-10's that the PAF is currently purchasing are a stop gap measure for the lack of new F-16's PAF will buy, these will be the exact same J-10's that are in service with China and are similar to the JF-17 (software wise). Although there is alot of confusion going around let me clear one thing up the FC-20 are basically upgraded Chinese J-10's (With Chinese engine/AESA radar) it is likely that the PAF will further upgrade this aircraft with more advanced ESM/AESA. Now lets look at what the IAF might have by 2015

-190-250 SU-30MKI
-50 Mig-29's
-40 Mirage 2000's
-126 MRCA's
-100-150 LCA

india's deal is for 180 MKI's so 250 i doubt as 250 high Maintenance aircraft would strech any airforce thin.

50 mig-29's will probably be retired once the mrca gets approved these planes do't have the range to be used effectively as a
strike platform

mirage 2000's hmmm no idea would probalbly be used for deep strike.

126 MRCA no idea when the IAF will decide this even if they fininlize tommorw morning the full strnth of 126 will take another 5-10 years (infrastructure building facilities e.t.c) so by 2015 u can be expect something like 60 -70 mrca IF THE ORDER IS PLACED IN 2009. moreover india has so far inducted only 75+ MKI in 10 years .

100-150 LCA in 2015 .......... the first operational squadron of LCA is expected to come in around 2015 so are you saying that india is to produce 100-150 LCA in one year. If the LCA is ever inducted you will see  no more than 2 squadron strength. as its more expensivve than a blk 52 f-16 yet offers the capabilty of the upraded mig-21

reagrds
Wajman

[Maniac]

IAF has ordered precisely 230 MKI's till now. And they would all be in service by 2015. At present IAF has about a hundred of them.

So the count would be like:

-230 Su-30 MKI Mk III
-67 MiG 29SMT(They are being MLU'd)
-50 Mirage 2000(Being upgraded to Dash 9 standard)
-100 Jaguars DARIN III
-125 MiG 21 bisons(they are in service till 2020)
-Unknown number of MRCA
-Unknown number of LCA

[ali23]

MKI's engines have a very low MTBO(mean time between overhaul).It is around 250 hrs. So not every one of them will be operational. 250 hours mean that the engines need to be overhauled almost every year.


LCA will not be inducted more than 1-2 squadrons.They are no more than a trainer.


MRCA, well indians still have to order them and they are taking so long that many western companies are fed up now.

[aziqbal]

The crack Pakistani fighters aces better be flying the JF17 backwards and training properly in it to make sure its the first fighter to score a kill

[ali786]

In my opinion Pakistan airforce by 2015 aprrox will b:

250 Jf17
36 j10B/FC20
18 F16CD block 52, 18 more option
60 f16 MLU ones
55 F7PG  (trust me these planes can serve Pakistan by atleast 2025 as only recieved them in 2002)
60 mirage rose upgrade ones (same with these, should serve til 2025)

TOTAL = around 480 latest planes making Pakistan an amazing airforce

after 2015 Pakistan could get more j10B/FC20 depending on indian mcra deal and lca etc, but there is very less chance of Pakistan having over 36 j10b/fc20 before 2015 as Pakistan will recieve these around 2014 2015. and jf17 i honestly believe this plane main role and the main reason to built this is to protect Pakistan air space and not use it as an attack plane and i defo agree with this, i mean imagine Pakistan pilots with a defensive plane like jf17, trust this will scare many airforces off as fighting on someone else airspace is different.  jf17 is truely amazing plane, and its specially made for defensive role and made for Pakistan airforce so it doesnt matter what other airforce thinks or it doesnt mata what it looks in front of indian mki on paper because you dont really need so much long range to fight in ur own airspace and fuel. as u wil b backed by awacs and fuel planes.

Around 2020 plus Pakistan will start to add 5th generation jxx plane in small numbers and this will along with more j10bs/fc20 replace all f7pgs and mirages around 2025 plus

[wajman]

IAF has ordered precisely 230 MKI's till now. And they would all be in service by 2015. At present IAF has about a hundred of them.

So the count would be like:

-230 Su-30 MKI Mk III
-67 MiG 29SMT(They are being MLU'd)
-50 Mirage 2000(Being upgraded to Dash 9 standard)
-100 Jaguars DARIN III
-125 MiG 21 bisons(they are in service till 2020)
-Unknown number of MRCA
-Unknown number of LCA

The numbers on Bharat raksha is around 70+ in 10 years.with Russia and India manufacturing them how did u get to 150+ planes in 5 years?

i accept around 150~180 mki's by 2015

mig 29-smt well can easily be  countered by our existing forces 60+ are no threat now or in 50 years

marge 2000 can be countered by almost al aircraft in the paf inventory  

mig-21's is a short ranged point defense aircraft no real use in offensive combat + we can easily counter them in both offensive and defensive  operations

jaguars well would be slaughtered  in Pakistani airspace

LCA well let them start serial production then we will talk about it it is expected to be inducted SO FAR to a squadron strength by 2015

MRCA not yet disclosed

for the purposes of discussion the only reall oroblem we have are 150+ mki's

wajman

wajman  

[wajman]

The numbers on Bharat raksha is around 70+ in 10 years.with Russia and India manufacturing them how did u get to 150+ planes in 5 years?

i accept around 150~180 mki's by 2015 at best

mig 29-smt well can easily be  countered by our existing forces 60+ are no threat now or in 50 years

marge 2000 can be countered by almost al aircraft in the paf inventory  

mig-21's is a short ranged point defense aircraft no real use in offensive combat + we can easily counter them in both offensive and defensive  operations

jaguars well would be slaughtered  in Pakistani airspace

LCA well let them start serial production then we will talk about it it is expected to be inducted SO FAR to a squadron strength by 2015

MRCA not yet disclosed

for the purposes of discussion the only reall oroblem we have are 150+ mki's

wajman

wajman  

[vijaytripoli]

underestimating your enemy can open the path of "" defeat""!    don,t you think so wajman?
chau

[bojangles]

underestimating your enemy can open the path of "" defeat""!    don,t you think so wajman?
chau

It really depends on the MRCA deal (and the Pakistani response to it)... But chances are MRCA won't be in large numbers by 2015 (seeing as the deal isn't even signed yet, or decided)..

[Best of the Best]

underestimating your enemy can open the path of "" defeat""!    don,t you think so wajman?
chau

I Hope you give the same message to your fellow indian posters here or any where esle charity begins at home underestimating/overestimating thats always realistic but sending a single squadren of MKI to decimate PAF is even funnier wouldnt you agree? Before you say something i have read such comments many times over so it simply isnt an exaggeration.

Regards,

BoB.

[timepass70]

Greetings from DAMMAM,

In my opinion PAF is going to use the same formula of Mirages to F-16s, they will increase MLU'd F-16 upto 100+ & arround 40+ BLK 52.

So as per my wish list PAF would be like that between 2015-2020:

250 - JF17
100 - FC20/J10B
40 - F16(BLK52)
100 - F16(MLU'd)
60 - F7(PG)
60 - Mirages(ROSE)

Best Regards to every one.

Pakistan Zindabad

[airomerix]

I miss the Block 60 in PAFs fleet. =(

[wajman]

underestimating your enemy can open the path of "" defeat""!    don,t you think so wajman?
chau

as i said earlier the only real problem is mki for us. I suggested buying j-11 around 60 to discourage our foe's . almost all anaylysts agree with the paradighm that the IAF though capable would face major problems over Pakistani airspace

wajman  

[Iranian Warrior]

I think the PAF will NOT have air superiority over India. It can not be expected to when it has a quantitive and qualitative disadvantage. This is natural due to the great difference in expenditure between the two respective forces. The Indians are really beefing up their air force and I think that the best the PAF can be expected to do is simply attempt to deny the IAF air superiority over Pakistan. To expect or believe the PAF could achieve air superiority is expecting too much from them and wish full thinking.

[Tipu-786]

With current economic conditions of Pakistan and if that doesn't change ...  we wont be doing anything or buying by 2015 ......