Pakistan's Gdp To Drop To Less Than 1% Growth This Year, it may even go into a contraction of 0.3%. Options

[Hellraiser006]

http://forum.pakistanidefence.com/index.ph...st&p=990881


As a economist, I make a point of never believing what I read in a newspaper or what what is said by a politician, instead I always look for the actual FACTS and FIGURES.

so let me get this straight, you are an economist?

[smegster]

so let me get this straight, you are an economist?

Yes, I have a degree in economics, a masters in development economics and I work for a economic consultancy.

As a economist I ask everyone to NOT believe what I am saying, instead you should always check the sources that I provide and make up your own mind about whether what I am saying is correct or not.

[asal-main]

its called hero worship bro, a form of shirk.,the idolization of man beyond all reason and logic. If the Prophet Muhammad himself admonished Musharaff even he would be chased off this forum. That is why we are in the state that we are.

Many of the people who vehemently support Musharaff dont even live in Pakistan. Thats how bizzare this is.

Its not hero worship. You have to give credit where it is due, and what you are doing is attempting to take that away, and confusing it with shirk (?!). The numerous positive international business, industry, and investor related articles during most of Musharraf's time is proof enough. Saying or thinking that it was all a bubble, imagination, or mirage is incorrect, faulty, dishonest - take your pick.

Unless the top general is of below average intelligence, a numbskull or something, which is obviously not the case, my objective assessment is in Pakistan a military govt working with parliament and people will perform better in economic area than a 'democratic' one and Musharraf's govt did that. The main downfall occurs due to harmful external or internal factors, political causes such as wanting failures back (this is personality worship but called politics), corrosive ideologies, separatist or religious militancies. Taking over Mosque and wanting to cause disturbance, violence, mayhem is among them. Even more disturbing is people supporting them rather than condemning them. All these count as negatives and cannot be put as Musharraf's fault. Stability is important.

[Dilpakistani]

economies dont start tanking within weeks of anyone taking over unless they are weak to begin with? Does your brain not understand that you stupid child.

yes they do if your government sucked up RS 900 bln out of economy in just 4 months... where as the total internal debit of last 8 years was just 1200 billion. Democratic government have created a record of destroying economy in minimum time.... what is worst that they are still at it .... they are running Pakistan on Loans....
This Government have to be toppled soon otherwise the damage will be irreversible.

[Hellraiser006]

Yes, I have a degree in economics, a masters in development economics and I work for a economic consultancy.

As a economist I ask everyone to NOT believe what I am saying, instead you should always check the sources that I provide and make up your own mind about whether what I am saying is correct or not.

well, who am I to argue with that?

[Volcano-X]

salamualikum

musharaff did damage to Pak and the economic development was only done on papers ..most of you people dont een live in Pakistan and mostly agree on the figures given ..thats how naive you people are... musharaff k daur mei intrest (Sood) dealings were at there peak. behayaee was at its peak. you could see mujra and date on streets even kiss a girl if she was agreed. plus amreica's blunder was created on west borders in fata and all.. i am not saying this democrap is gud but belive me halat buray hui hain musharaff k daur mei b no elecricity and yet the same problem. KSE k 15000 points pa reach krk kia faida? did its benefit reached local people? inflation kam hui? these are only few to name.. and i say there is no true leader in PAK LAND, all have to do revenge politics. and all they love is Kursi and thats there God..

Just people come here and live sometime then comment on the situation. not by collecting facts and figures from internet..

no offence meant just my 2 paisa's
Allah Hafiz

[smegster]

Just people come here and live sometime then comment on the situation. not by collecting facts and figures from internet..

I think your criticism is wrong in two ways.

Firstly how do you think the data for the Economic Survey for Pakistan that is release by the Ministry of Finance is collected? How do you think the data about inflation that the State Bank of Pakistan publishes is collected?

Do the people at the Ministry of Finance or the State Bank of Pakistan sit around looking at the internet for figures, no they don't, they go out on the street and do surveys of prices and output.

These provide the most accurate ESTIMATES of the level of inflation and output throughout the economy.

Let me give you a example.

Although there is a PERCEPTION that the Musharraf era was a period of high inflation (ask anyone in Pakistan and I'm sure they will be able to tell by how much the price of Atta has went up during this period), people perception does not always match with REALITY. When we look at the actual figure we can see that food inflation during this period was actually low.

Table 7.3: Historical Inflationary Trends*
Food inflation
Average of 1990-97 12.2
Average of 2000-2008 7.5

http://www.finance.gov.pk/admin/images/sur...Inflation08.pdf

So in this situation who is correct the person who lives in Pakistan and has the PERCEPTION that food prices sky rocketed during this period or the ACTUAL economic data which show what actually happened.

Secondly although many people on PDF might not live in Pakistan, this does not mean that they do not know what is happening in Pakistan, we all have families who live and visit Pakistan.

Generally when we talk to members of my family in Pakistan we always get the same impression that nothing has changed over the last 10 years, however those members of my family who visit Pakistan can see the changes that have happened.

My Granddad goes back to Pakistan every year (and has been doing so for the last 50 years), again this year when he visited our family as usual they said nothing had changed over the last few years.

This is what my Granddad ACTUALLY saw, when you look at the peoples houses there might not seem to have been much change but on the road and street you can see a massive transformation, over the last decade so there has been a massive increase in the number of cars and businesses.

Perhaps the biggest changes my Granddad noted in the cities was how in the last few year, all the gutter had started to be covered so now there was so much less cockroaches and mosquito's (so my Granddad did not have to worry about catching malaria this time).

When my granddad visited the rural areas, again everyone said how nothing had change, BUT again he was able to notice all the changes, he could see the new factories that had been built, he could see how all the children were now going to school etc.

So again which is correct the PERCEPTION of those who live in Pakistan and say that nothing has change (i.e. all the development was just on paper) or the REALITY of the increase in the number of factories and improvements in roads and schools etc witnessed by those visiting Pakistan.

[Volcano-X]

I think your criticism is wrong in two ways.

Firstly how do you think the data for the Economic Survey for Pakistan that is release by the Ministry of Finance is collected? How do you think the data about inflation that the State Bank of Pakistan publishes is collected?

Do the people at the Ministry of Finance or the State Bank of Pakistan sit around looking at the internet for figures, no they don't, they go out on the street and do surveys of prices and output.

These provide the most accurate ESTIMATES of the level of inflation and output throughout the economy.

Let me give you a example.

Although there is a PERCEPTION that the Musharraf era was a period of high inflation (ask anyone in Pakistan and I'm sure they will be able to tell by how much the price of Atta has went up during this period), people perception does not always match with REALITY. When we look at the actual figure we can see that food inflation during this period was actually low.

Table 7.3: Historical Inflationary Trends*
Food inflation
Average of 1990-97 12.2
Average of 2000-2008 7.5

http://www.finance.gov.pk/admin/images/sur...Inflation08.pdf

So in this situation who is correct the person who lives in Pakistan and has the PERCEPTION that food prices sky rocketed during this period or the ACTUAL economic data which show what actually happened.

Secondly although many people on PDF might not live in Pakistan, this does not mean that they do not know what is happening in Pakistan, we all have families who live and visit Pakistan.

Generally when we talk to members of my family in Pakistan we always get the same impression that nothing has changed over the last 10 years, however those members of my family who visit Pakistan can see the changes that have happened.

My Granddad goes back to Pakistan every year (and has been doing so for the last 50 years), again this year when he visited our family as usual they said nothing had changed over the last few years.

This is what my Granddad ACTUALLY saw, when you look at the peoples houses there might not seem to have been much change but on the road and street you can see a massive transformation, over the last decade so there has been a massive increase in the number of cars and businesses.

Perhaps the biggest changes my Granddad noted in the cities was how in the last few year, all the gutter had started to be covered so now there was so much less cockroaches and mosquito's (so my Granddad did not have to worry about catching malaria this time).

When my granddad visited the rural areas, again everyone said how nothing had change, BUT again he was able to notice all the changes, he could see the new factories that had been built, he could see how all the children were now going to school etc.

So again which is correct the PERCEPTION of those who live in Pakistan and say that nothing has change (i.e. all the development was just on paper) or the REALITY of the increase in the number of factories and improvements in roads and schools etc witnessed by those visiting Pakistan.

salamualikum

i am not sayying they are sitting and collecting from internet but bro you knw urself that shaukat azeez showed false baloon of economy and secondly bro i am nt saying u people are nt connected to Pakistan but the people who live here know better then overseas pakistanis.. even my relatives come and visit they say Pakistan is very sasta..and people here cry bcoz of inflation.. and talking about ATTA bro..we are an agriculture country as per paper yet but every vegetable and fruit you name it its hype pricy and people are commiting suicides bcoz they cant get SASTI things bro.. not only vegetables but fruits and everything of daily use are getting pricy .. on PAPER, the economy is growing but whts the use if its benefit doesnt reach local people?

2ndly bro .. i was refering to You people who stay outside but bro getting information and expirencing the problem are 2 different things. really it burns my heart to see ministers and all treveling in mercedes and heli's and more then half of people are suffering and not getting to eat.. musharaf also spent lamely.. he is nt a mentor.. i hate every polotician including ganja and imran playboy.. and i can see no leader except zaid hamid who can really turn the tables for Pakistan. economy is going to gutter even on paper nw ...

May Allah save Pakistan from fitna of these crappy poloticians..

Allah Hafiz

[instantexcess]

i am not sayying they are sitting and collecting from internet but bro you knw urself that shaukat azeez showed false baloon of economy and secondly bro i am nt saying u people are nt connected to Pakistan but the people who live here know better then overseas pakistanis..

Another illinformed douchebag.

What about Pakistanis who have financial and otherwise vested interests in Pakistan. Own properties & pay taxes on them. The hell, overseas Pakistanis actually even bother paying taxes, the rest of the locals just pay Rishwat and declare "Haza min fazle Rabbi".

I love how overseas Pakistanis who are contributing around 600~800 Million USD per MONTH are being ridiculed by the clowns who are far to uneducated & are outright jahil to digest some basic factual & statistical information.

1. Yes, Pakistan's economy grew @ 8% during Musharaf's 9 year rule.
2. Yes, Pakistan's GDP doubled in the 9 years of Musharaf Rule.
3. Yes, Pakistan's GDP per Cap doubled tippled from $380 during Ganja's rule to over $1029 USD today.
4. Yes, Poverty in Pakistan dropped by 10% (from 34 to 24) during 9 years of Musharaf rule.
5. Yes, Pakistan's credit rating was A with S & P & with Moody's, which is now D or worse.
6. And lets not even get into the Military development & Education development programs of Musharaf era. A country where 2~3 Ph.D papers were considered a novelty till 1999 today produces over 500 papers a year.

Ultimately, it dosen't matter whether you or anyone dances naked or with their clothes on, it dosen't matter whether anyone yells around like that middle-aged Jester Ali Ahmed Kurd or whores themselves around Like BB did to the americans to destabilize Pakistan.


The statistical data from those 9 years is now set in stone, much like the achievements of Ayub, nothing can change the facts. The antics of many remind me of the image below. No matter what you do, the Mountain has now been cut in Half, and you can do nothing to tape it back.

(IMG:http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2413/2539938620_b355e4a28d_o.jpg)

*the above image is from karachi, where they just cut the Mountain in two to run a road through their. This my countrymen is the sign of a country which wanted to move forward, literally through mountains. Than you guys voted for PPP. And so much for progress.


And if this personality worship, than I still have no regrets. If you can get Ganja, Choor aur Badkirdar (i.e. Nawaz, Zardari & Imran) to yeild 1/3 the results of Musharaf era, i will gladly worship them as well.

This post has been edited by instantexcess: Feb 8 2009, 03:26 PM

[Mangla]

I AM GETTING ANGRY NOW.

I stated many times, why inflation in food products is high.

1, Pakistan had lower prices of atta compared to neighbours, thus encouraged smuggling to food deprived Afghanistan

2, World Food prices reached its peak last year. Just google the facts. CNN and BBC are not owned by Pakistani military.

3. Not so good harvest.

4. Last govt paid farmers poorly thus they grew other more profitable crops, like rice (no shortage of that, look at export figures). Also, you cant force everyone to grow one thing.

5. PPP have raised the minium price the govt gives to farmers, by around 25 percent. Therefore city folk now have to pay more, even when world prices have fallen.

6. People are on average eating more, productivity is not keeping up.

lastly, if you want more info dont be scared to ask, but quit talking crap.

[smegster]

.. on PAPER, the economy is growing but whts the use if its benefit doesnt reach local people?

I would be very interested to know why you think that local people did not benefit from growth, it seem as though you went to the Ishaq Dar school of economics, where you make bold statement without any evidence.

The increase in the growth rate under Musharraf allowed the spending on development to be greatly increased as shown below.

(IMG:http://i455.photobucket.com/albums/qq279/smegster999/socialexpenditure.jpg)

http://www.sbp.org.pk/reports/annual/arfy08/Chp-8.pdf

The increase in spending on development helped to reduce poverty. (the percentage of Pakistan's population in poverty declined from 34.4% in 2000-01 to 22.3% in 2005-06)

(IMG:http://i455.photobucket.com/albums/qq279/smegster999/Povertyrate.jpg)
http://www.finance.gov.pk/admin/images/sur...3-Poverty08.pdf

Unfortunately many of the gains during the Musharraf era are being undone by the effects of inflation and the incompetence of democratically elected government.

(IMG:http://i455.photobucket.com/albums/qq279/smegster999/inflation.jpg)
http://www.sbp.org.pk/reports/annual/arfy08/Chp-3.pdf

Although alot of inflation in Pakistan was caused by the global rise in the price of oil and food, the democratically elected government preferred to waste it's time on the politics of revenge rather than concentrating on the economy so I hope everyone is enjoy democracy.

(p.s. the poverty figures are estimated using household survey which look at information from thousands of households, te Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) Survey 2005-06 covered 15,453 households
http://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/fbs/statis...ive_summary.pdf )

[Shehz]

Every tom, dick, and harry could purchase a cell phone.
Our maid, drivers, chowkidar's, even the janitor's, had cell phones.

The poor living in close distances, bought bicycles.
The one's who had bicycles, bought motorbikes.

Lower class could afford at-least 1 airconditioner per household.
Dwellers in the slums could afford TV and dish networks.

During Musharraf's era, the bying power increased of the common man.
Infant mortality rate decreased.
literacy rate increased.

[Volcano-X]

salamualikum

I would be very interested to know why you think that local people did not benefit from growth, it seem as though you went to the Ishaq Dar school of economics, where you make bold statement without any evidence.

bro come over to Pakistan and ask local people.. during his time there was sudden increases in price of wheat and there was no wheat available.. i make bold statement because i saw and heard the people over here used to cry due to high prices of daily commodities.. there was growth in industry..but tell me during his era the power crisis worsened, no vegetables of daily use were available? there was increase in forex researves and stock market but the point here i am stressing is whats the use of this growth if its local people are not benefitted ...only elite class was benefitted and it praises musharafff that too because begairaty during his period worsened there was no control on behayae and mujra's were amm our women went from shalwar kameez to jeans and skirts.... and we got the weapons from amerika but that too because of unrecorded killings in tribal areas.. i am not gonna go into this topik point here is about economy.. if musharaff had contributed to LARGE GROWTH of PAKland how is it that people even the most literate curse him and i am nt talking abt fake mullahs and all jahil talibans but even highly literate people criticized him

Although alot of inflation in Pakistan was caused by the global rise in the price of oil and food, the democratically elected government preferred to waste it's time on the politics of revenge rather than concentrating on the economy so I hope everyone is enjoy democracy.
(p.s. the poverty figures are estimated using household survey which look at information from thousands of households, te Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) Survey 2005-06 covered 15,453 households
http://www.statpak.gov.pk/depts/fbs/statis...ive_summary.pdf )

oil is a separate issue bro.. we are nt an OPEC member or oil producing nation that is understandable but are we an agricultural country? still even during musharaff's time wheat was imported and i am against this democrap.. we are followers of a khalifah not of illetrate assholes who come over by mudering there w*ore and the most corrupt people this earth has ever seen.. but i think as a nation we desearve this.. musharff was better then these mofo's but again he made very wrong choices and he also had sympathy for america, he made us most begairat nation by killing our own people..


Waslaam

[Volcano-X]

Every tom, dick, and harry could purchase a cell phone.
Our maid, drivers, chowkidar's, even the janitor's, had cell phones.

The poor living in close distances, bought bicycles.
The one's who had bicycles, bought motorbikes.

Lower class could afford at-least 1 airconditioner per household.
Dwellers in the slums could afford TV and dish networks.

During Musharraf's era, the bying power increased of the common man.
Infant mortality rate decreased.
literacy rate increased.

salamualikum

bro there is no use of these things if a person doesnot get food to eat.. i agree there was development in cell phone and banking industries but cellphone evolved globaly but he largely ignored the basic necessities catch my drift shehz...

Allah Hafiz

[Mangla]

Valcano are you blind. Did you miss my simple list. Apparently ignoring statements is a trademark of PDF members.

[smegster]

stressing is whats the use of this growth if its local people are not benefitted

A quick question DID THE NUMBE OF POOR PEOPLE IN Pakistan INCREASE OR DECREASE WHEN MUSHARRAF WAS IN POWER.

I think I need to SHOUT because you seem to think that you know more about what happened to poverty in Pakistan than a survey of over 15,000 families. (PLEASE LET ME KNOW HOW MANY HOUSEHOLD YOU HAVE VISITED)

A survey which I might add was done by PEOPLE in Pakistan who went to households throughout the country.

YES, the price of wheat has skyrocketed in the last year but you can thank the DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED GOVERNMENT and THE PEOPLE OF Pakistan who elected them for that.

Once again NO MORE ISHAQ DAR ECONOMICS PLEASE, please provide evidence rather than RANTS AND RAVES.

(p.s My family come from what was the MOST POOREST and LEAST DEVELOPED part of Pakistan- Mirpur, it was because of POVERTY that people were forced leave this area to find work.

The Mirpuri's that came to the UK ended up doing the jobs that no other people wanted to do, my Granddad worked 12 hour night shifts at a bakery, 7 days a week, all year round.
For us poverty is NOT something to rant about but it is something in our blood and it is the reason why I worked hard at school at university.
SO PLEASE NO MORE RANTS ABOUT THE ELITE CLASS AND HOW WE SHOULD FIND OUT ABOUT POVERTY.)

[meengla]

Pakistan has been in a downhill spiral since the Lawyer's Movement started in March 2007. There have been numerous terrorism-related incidents in Pakistan since about late 2006 to add to the idea that investing in Pakistan is not good anymore.
No, it is not the 'democrats' taking power in Pakistan. Musharraf finally left power in August 2008--yes, that late--but by then Pakistan had become ungovernable. A peaceful, prosperous country like Ice Land is nearly bankrupt, without having a single incident of terrorism on its soil in living memory. Compare that with Pakistan of last 2 years alone, in every way. Tough question for this Forum's partisan 'patriots'.

It is a pity that Pakistanis cannot rise above their petty politics. Today, Pakistani Army is DESPERATELY trying to rebuild its 'image' damaged during Musharraf years and yet these losers of this Forum want to drag Kiyani into mounting a coup which the Army does not want to do for simple reasons: Pakistan is ungovernable now. Why the hell would PA want to get more eggs on its face? Do you supporters of coups even after what the ISI Chief is trying to say in his latest interview: 'We really want this civilian govt. to be successful' (paraphrased).

Ultimately, it is the PEOPLE of Pakistan who are going to decide what is good for Pakistan. The only way to ascertain that is through free and fair elections. And I'd accept anyone for that role so long as they are elected by the people and can be removed by the people of Pakistan.

[Volcano-X]

Valcano are you blind. Did you miss my simple list.

salamualikum

yes mayb mangla... where are they?

and smegster bro .. do you think 15000 families represent whole of PAKLand? and i am nt providing you with ISHAQ darr economics and this democrap was elected by CIA nt PEOPLE OF Pakistan.. and i rest my case as you cant understand.. and my bro i think i have seen Pakistani families and i dun talk blind..


P.s no need to get hyper ..i caught your point but you dunt seem to get me...

anywayz i rest my case

Allah Hafiz

[Mangla]

salamualikum

yes mayb mangla... where are they?

and smegster bro .. do you think 15000 families represent whole of PAKLand? and i am nt providing you with ISHAQ darr economics and this democrap was elected by CIA nt PEOPLE OF Pakistan.. and i rest my case as you cant understand.. and my bro i think i have seen Pakistani families and i dun talk blind..


P.s no need to get hyper ..i caught your point but you dunt seem to get me...

anywayz i rest my case

Allah Hafiz

I stated many times, why inflation in food products is high.

1, Pakistan had lower prices of atta compared to neighbours, thus encouraged smuggling to food deprived Afghanistan

2, World Food prices reached its peak last year. Just google the facts. CNN and BBC are not owned by Pakistani military.

3. Not so good harvest.

4. Last govt paid farmers poorly thus they grew other more profitable crops, like rice (no shortage of that, look at export figures). Also, you cant force everyone to grow one thing.

5. PPP have raised the minium price the govt gives to farmers, by around 25 percent. Therefore city folk now have to pay more, even when world prices have fallen.

6. People are on average eating more, productivity is not keeping up.

lastly, if you want more info dont be scared to ask.

[Shehz]

salamualikum

bro there is no use of these things if a person doesnot get food to eat.. i agree there was development in cell phone and banking industries but cellphone evolved globaly but he largely ignored the basic necessities catch my drift shehz...

Allah Hafiz

We're not talking about the industry, try and focus.

What I said was extremely easy to comprehend.
Poor had the ability to purchase these items.
It proves buying power of the common man increased.

If they had nothing to eat, they wouldn't be buying bikes, cell phones, or airconditioner's right?
Or you still don't get the drift?

And if you missed it earlier, during Musharraf's era, literacy rates increased as well.
If you still don't comprehend, then don't be afraid to ask.

[instantexcess]

I want to say many things.

But i refuse to entertain any 17~ year old "cool" kid who won't stop using "Bro"

[ZPak]

I remember the economy beginning to tank when Ishaq Dork took oath and then immediately started bad-mouthing his own country's economy just for the sake of political gain. The resulting panic and flight of capital from Pakistan should be laid directly at his feet.

Musharraf's economic achievements cannot be taken away from him. No matter your religious or political viewpoints you have to admit the growth under musharraf was no bubble. Its only the jahil Pakistani awam armed with their vote that are to blame with the current economic disaster.

[Tamerlane]

Don't blame the "jahil awam" as the people of every country, including Western countries, are just sheep. They do whatever their leaders and the media tell them.

The "educated people" of America have let their country become colonized by a shitty little country like Israel and America is destroying itself for the sake of Israel.

Pakistan is cursed with bad leaders and a treacherous foreign-funded media. They are destroying Pakistan for the sake of America.