High-End - Su-30MKI
Medium-Level - Mirage 2000 and variants
Low level - LCA
Now this makes a lot more sense. However, if so, then I personally wouldnt rule out Mig-29SMT yet as india would keep/modify maintenance facilities for naval Mig-29s...so SMT would b easy to maintain. All these (MKI/M2K-5/LCA/Mig-29SMT) will b multirole fighters...and hence no need of old migs/jags etc. 30-40 squadrons of these 4 machines would serve IAF much better than 55/60 squadron (a number i have always doubted) of a dozen different types of fighters. If u look around, most modern air forces r going for lower numbers of more capable fighters...dats the future trend.
PS. As for Pak-FA i share ur pessimism. Just looking at the most basic figures (for Pak-FA and JSF) makes one question its feasibility. JSF has a R&D fund of around $20 bil with $200 bil for production (around 2000 fighters to keep the unit cost around $35-40 mil). In comparison, Pak-FA's R&D kitty has mere $1.5 bil (probably its engine development would cost more) with an unknown future. Its still possible but only if some country other than russia funds the project. But even then, the unit cost will be huge (in comparison with JSF) unless a large number is produced...for which u need major customers.