30 replies to this topic

[PakShaheen]

Hello Friends!

I am not very regular visitor of ThinkTank @ PDF but i think the challenge we as a nation is facing right now is severe shortage of electricity. I have thought a lot about this crisis and i am amazed that how nobody is talking about it in govt. sector very vocally?
This crisis is now banking on our export and industrial sector very badly and if we do take drastic measure then only God know where our industry and agriculture will go?
I have started this poll to take your decesion and opion on this issue. I think we must debate here extensivly.

The Poll looks long, but as i said earlier it is a complex issue and have many dimensions so the options are multiple choice. So, What you guys think, What to do? say in next 5-10 years.

Edited by PakShaheen, 19 June 2008 - 01:35 AM.

[PakShaheen]

I wounder, People dont know the actuall situation regarding energy crisis or just want to avoid by turning a blind eye??

Just 1 vote other than me....

[CounterPunch]

I think, we should prioritise our jobslist first. We are trying to do too many things all at once, and consquently succeeding in none.

We should ask for a break in War on Terror, and put our house in order first. A retreat, strategic or tactical, is needed so we may concentrate on 'damage control'.

Once done, we should invite all the parties,as it seems they are already standing hands-in-hands so shud b easy, to come and prioritise what needs be done!

As Law and order is the direct product of the War on terror, so we can feel optimistic about improved law n order once we change our stance on WOT.

And thereafter, major issues that remain are the Power crises, inflation/price hike {which to a very large extent is attributable to worsening power situation, read: fuels as well as electricity},education,health and so on so forth.

ANPs leader Asfandyar wali has been named minister for water and electricity {hope i have got the name of the ministry right}, so now it will be interesting to see what strategy he has on alternatives to kalabagh.

[shahid_2dk]

Really quick solution?
Then import the shortage amount from Iran as a shortterm solution.

Thereafter make a long term plan and apply it.
No rushing when building Nuclear plants or dams etc.

[ZPak]

The EU is conducting research to seperate hydrogen and carbon from LNG and burn that because hydrogen has a higher energy ratio than LNG itself. Plus you end up with loads of carbon which has a lot of value on the market. Thats still in the experimental stage though and that really hitech.

[platinum786]

Immedately;
(within the next 6 months)
1. Import electricity from other countries.
2. Pass bills cutting down on the wastage of electicity, like malls and office buildings all empty but lit up like christmas trees.
3. Distribute and import energy saving bulbs

Short term;
(within 2-3 years)
1. Educate people about energy conservation
2. Encourage car pooling/increase the number of buses
3. improve the current distribution network
4. Build smaller dams and get them complete and working
5. Encourage people to build chimneys in thier homes to allow them to burn coal in the winter to keep warm
6. Complete nuclear power plants
7. Re-open the coal plants
8. Start importing and selling solar panels. 1 per home could easily run the average hosuehold in a sun rich country like Pakistan. Each middle class home should have one.

Medium term;
(within 5-10 years)
1. Get IPI or IPC pipeline complete. We need the gas as much as we need the revenue.
2. Complete the larger dam projects, kalabagh etc is a nation need.
3. Start the production of bio-fuels for use in cars and trucks.
4. Increase the rail network, have trams in all big cities and run them on electicity, the rail network should be used for freight and trade more.
5. Have regular top quality bus services in cities and have hybrid buses. Allow the import of hybrid cars duty free.

Long term;
(within 10-15 years)
1. Ensure that warming of homes is done using either coal or central heating (water warmed up (can be done electrically)), rather than burning gas.
2. Ensure 90% of transport is running on hybrids or boio fuels
3. Ensure no city or town in the country does not have a railway staion and that all trains run on electricity
4. Ensure all big cities have trams running on electricty
5. Ensure all cities have electric buses running proper routes that suit commuters and travel between town is done in hybrid buses
6. Ensure we have enough dams, nuclear power stations and coal stations to support this consumption
7. Develop your own solar panels and wind farms and tidal energy generators and ensure 75% of electricty is produced through renewable, clean sources


Summary

In the short term we need power now and we need to try and be sensible with it. In the medium term we need to produce power using all the means we have, but try to get away from fossil fuels as they are expensive and running out possibly. By getting people onto public transport, you reduce the amount of petrol/deisel used and by using electric trains you can reduce congestion from haulage too. In the long term we must try to get as much of our power from renewable sources as possible. The more green they are the better. we must try to have a world class public transport system to facilitate travel of commodities and workers nationwide so skilled workers are not limited to certain areas. We need to ensure that travel is done using electric or bio-fuel powered means, which would mean we can control the fuel that we need and create it ourselves taking us out of the current energy crisis that will get worse internationally.

It is expensive but it should be national priority number 1.

[MoThSmOkE]

1. Abolish duties on energy saving bulbs
2. Set a limit on energy use (individual going beyond that limit would have to pay more per watt for electricity)
3. Build Basha and Katzarah dam on war-footing.

[aziqbal]

When are the Chashma nuclear reactors coming online? Is it 2050!

[PakShaheen]

Plat, Bro i would like to update your medium term plan a bit.. We will have to complete one big dam during the next 5-6 years at every cost.

Now, I think i missed alternate energy (solar,wind mills) that can also become handy but will have to deploy in numbers.

[1Pakistani]

HOW abt builing KALABAGH damn so we have more electicity and also greater water supply for agriculture. I just cant believe how dumb our ppl are KALABAGH is for the nation. NOW PPP is in POWER so less chance of PUNJABI doing harm so y not PPP build KALABAGH dam.

[hassan]

we can't build damn in 1 month it takes years to build big dam..not easy task...small dams with better canals and put small electric generator on those canals and redistribute that power....it will double our capacity in energy as it will be cheap to built small DAMS on canals.and go for green energy.

[BaburMissile]

HOW abt builing KALABAGH damn so we have more electicity and also greater water supply for agriculture. I just cant believe how dumb our ppl are KALABAGH is for the nation. NOW PPP is in POWER so less chance of PUNJABI doing harm so y not PPP build KALABAGH dam.

Very true. I heard the Sindhi's would like to rename the Kalabagh to Benazir dam. You know whatever makes them happy as long as the dam is built! Water conservation would be another massive benefit! Water will become scarce in the coming years so this dam is a blessing. This time the government will have to be fair in allocating the developmental resources to all provinces. Delay would be suicidal and will lead to the same resentment we've witnessed with shortage of power. The dam will take time to build, but the advantages will be enormous.

[PakShaheen]

we can't build damn in 1 month it takes years to build big dam..not easy task...small dams with better canals and put small electric generator on those canals and redistribute that power....it will double our capacity in energy as it will be cheap to built small DAMS on canals.and go for green energy.

Good to begin with but if you notice, in last 8 years we build

-Mirani Dam
-Kuram Tangi Dam
-Gomal Zam Dam
-Upraising Mangla Dam

Now only last one has really contributed in power generation while other small dams are good for agriculture only. If we have big river system we will have to build bigger dams. I will not stick to KalaBagh only. If it is controversial among provinces we can go for BASHA, BUNJI, AKURI(all on Indus ), MUNDA (On Sawat River), etc.

[faz101]

agree with most of what plat has said but I'd also place a bigger emphasis on renewable energy in the medium to long term. Pakistan is a country where the major cities like Lahore and Krachi will become insanely polluted in the next 15-20 years unless we can get some more renewable sources of energy to lessen our carbon emmissions. In Spain they now have massive solar plants which can generate enough power to supply a small city (sorry don't have exact figures but remember reading this article on the BBC website a yr or so ago). We should get such technology as well as distributing solar panels at a subsidised price. Similarly geothermal power can perhaps also be utilised in areas such as Balochistan. I'd leave nuclear energy as a last resort due to the added risk that it poses.

In addition to this the transport policy needs to be radically updated with a greater emphasis on mass transit systems in all the major cities to also help us achieve our aims.

regards.

[bojangles]

Very true. I heard the Sindhi's would like to rename the Kalabagh to Benazir dam. You know whatever makes them happy as long as the dam is built! Water conservation would be another massive benefit! Water will become scarce in the coming years so this dam is a blessing. This time the government will have to be fair in allocating the developmental resources to all provinces. Delay would be suicidal and will lead to the same resentment we've witnessed with shortage of power. The dam will take time to build, but the advantages will be enormous.

If thats what they want give it to them. As long as the dam is built. Some things that are really important for the country at the moment:

-Infrastructural development (including more and better roads, a better railway system etc.)
-The construction of dams (helps in electricity generation and agricultural usage)
-Investment in wind farms (it will take six million windmills, at $1000 a piece, including installation, to overcome the current energy shortage, it would be a good idea to start investing now)
-Shift all thermal power plants to coal based power plants and start developing coal mines
-Increase the production (of food products) per acre ratio, which should be at least 4 times what it is now (for most major crops such as wheat) and increase the overall level of farming technology used in the country (so each farmer can farm more land)
-Increase irrigation efficiency
etc.

[BaburMissile]

If thats what they want give it to them. As long as the dam is built. Some things that are really important for the country at the moment:

-Infrastructural development (including more and better roads, a better railway system etc.)
-The construction of dams (helps in electricity generation and agricultural usage)
-Investment in wind farms (it will take six million windmills, at $1000 a piece, including installation, to overcome the current energy shortage, it would be a good idea to start investing now)
-Shift all thermal power plants to coal based power plants and start developing coal mines
-Increase the production (of food products) per acre ratio, which should be at least 4 times what it is now (for most major crops such as wheat) and increase the overall level of farming technology used in the country (so each farmer can farm more land)
-Increase irrigation efficiency
etc.

Spot on. In a nutshell, a whole lot needs to be done.

[shahid_2dk]

Well never heard of the name thing abouth Kalabagh dam, but thats surely not the only thing.

Sindhis feel that the water is theirs and think that they won't be able to work with agriculture anymore because of the consequences of Kalabagh dam.

We just have to make sure that the water can be used to boost agricultural development instead of stopping it and we need to convince Sindhis about this, and then we need to stop splitting Pakistan by saying that the Kalabagh dam is hindered because of the Sindhis, we are just all Pakistanis

[Caesar]

We can say a lot of things but we have to admit that we are in such a shocking state today because leaders starting from BB to Nawaz and finally to his majesty Musharaf totally screw up Pakistan. There was no strategic planning and insight, there were no brains presents. This is not how countries are run but unfortunately we have the most pathetic and corrput leaders in this planet ruling 160 million people, and it is about to go worse.

Anyways, we need a multitude of steps including coal, solar, and wind are priority. Specially coal power should be on top on the list.

[KudosBot]

UPS & Solar is good aswell.

[JF 17 Thunder]

- Deleted -

[_killuminati_]

I think there are a butt-load of hydro-power plants/dams that were initiated by Musharraf's government, which may just be enough for Pakistan. However, I think only a handful of these projects have actually been completed, if any. I guess the the newer government will get the credit & take the reward because many of the projects will probably be completed in their term in office.

PakShaheen,
You should've included options for harnessing solar & wind energy.

I think the rural areas can be taken care of simply by planting windmills in the respective regions.

[PakShaheen]

OK guys! I have updated poll by adding Solar and Wind Energy as well.

[_killuminati_]

Too bad we can't recast our votes

[Saqr]

I say exploit everything...

Tidal energy on the coasts.
Wind energy on the plains.
Synthetic coal based fuel for a lot of stuff...like aircraft, large vehicles, etc.
LNG for industrial zons.
CNG-electric hybrids for cars.
Solar energy on our deserts.

Hamster wheel kinetic energy for our prisoners.

[omarxizt]

Energy is a topic which is endless for developing nations such as Pakistan, China, and India. The understanding of need based energy to productive energy is the key for solving the problem. We must have a good understanding of a median within the two to balance out the crises of the future. According to EIA (Energy information Administration) Pakistan’s consumption of Oil per day is 340,000 barrels per day. Refinery capabilities of Pakistan are only 269,000 barrels per day. Natural gas consumption according to 2006 is 1,112 billion cubic feet with 28,153 billion proven reserves. Now coal production of Pakistan has seen massive growth as some industries have changed to coal energy in recent years. This caused a chain reaction and many little industrial companies also looked at this alternative resource. Current production (2006 figures) of coal is 5.550 million short tons yet the consumption is 8.310. This leaves Pakistan in a lopsided situation.

Pakistan is asymmetrical in all categories related to energy. The big two, oil and coal, Pakistan is in the negative figure and there are no concrete resolution to get these sectors up and running. The one sector we are currently in good shape in is the Natural Gas. We might be able to build on that but the best thing to do is bring in more nuclear energy production to offset the 2010 shortages. It will be very difficult to build something after the energy crunch has leveled off and the entire world is after the very little oil which is on the open market. As of current oil futures can be bought as far as 84 months prior to delivery.

Nuclear energy can be a good thing not only for the future of Pakistan but also for a greener planet. I know that sounds kind of insane yet even the tree huggers will agree with me on this argument.

Here is the source for the above numbers:

http://tonto.eia.doe...ata.cfm?fips=PK

Main Page:

http://tonto.eia.doe...untry/index.cfm

[sfhussain]

Overview of Country Energy Sector - Personal view Point•
Pakistan trade deficit for September, 2007 is $1.25 billion, Exports of $1.49 Billion and Imports of $ 2.73 billion and Reserves of $16.335 Billion as of October 13, 2007
• If the trade deficit settles near $14 billion in 2007-08 it is expected to devour the inflow of remittances and foreign assistance. In the current fiscal the government had estimated about four billion dollars remittances and 4.5 billion worth foreign economic assistances , loans and grants.
• In 2005-06 the federal government had estimated exports at $17 billion while imports had been projected at $21 billion, although the current trend indicates that actual imports could settle near $24 billion.
• Pakistan’s oil import bill is over $7.5 Billion, was $3 Billion in 2003.
• Natural gas is being pursued as displacement fuel for oil imports. CNG for transportation and Ng for power generation. CNG/NG are present at 45% cost as compared to oil and even less for furnace oil.
• Pakistan energy mix is Natural Gas 50%, Oil 30%, Coal 6.5% and Hydel/Nuclear/other 13.5%. Natural gas is 100% domestically produced.
• Domestic oil and gas production is expected to decline starting in 2010 with the deficit to be met with import of natural gas.
• The energy gap in MTOE is (3.21) in 2010, (21.51) in 2015 and (50.23) in 2020 based in the energy demand growth rate of 7.4%.
• Electric Power generation capacity is over 19,000 MW with a current shortage of 1,500 MW. Pakistan needs 2000 MW additional capacity every year to meet GDP growth.
• GOP energy strategy is to move the energy mix to indigenous sources of energy focusing on coal, renewable, nuclear, Hydro-electric, encouragement of CNG in the transport sector and import of LNG to meet short term needs.
• The Energy gap over 5 to 15 years is to be filled with import of Natural Gas.
• LNG and NG pipeline are sources in the energy mix – NOT Options.
• More than one natural gas pipeline is planned for energy security.
• The additional power generation requirements of 143,310 MW from 2005-2030 will require an investment of $ 150 Billion.

What Pakistan needs to do to meet its Economic Growth - Personal Perspective
– In the short term import natural gas and electric power to meet deficits.
– Displace imported oil with indigenous production of Bio-diesel, ethanol and methanol.
– Exploits its untapped coal reserves (185 billion tons) to generate electric power and extract natural gas.
– Add renewable energy sources in the energy mix.
• Wind Energy will provide electric power to the grid by use of wind farms.
• Provide power to off grid/remote areas by use of solar, micro-hydel and wind energy.
– Overcome political issues to exploit its 55,000 MW Hydro-Generation potential by building Mini/Major dams. These would alleviate expected water shortages.
• Add appropriately the use of alternate energy sources for industry such as concepts of distributed generation and alternate fuels.
• To attract FDI, continue and accelerate pace of privatization in the sector. This would also help on the balance of payments.
• Develop capacity and institutions to move to open access and competitive energy markets and moving to a regional energy market.
• Pakistan should position itself as an energy and trade corridor between energy rich middle east and energy deficit South Asia and Western China. Potential of Central Asian exports of gas and Oil.
• Small grants for start-ups, R/D, etc, Bio-diesel, Renewable Energy, methanol and ethanol
• Energy Efficiency and Conservation – Engage Relevant Stakeholders in Strategic Opportunities
• Help in privatization of energy power sector and steps towards energy markets.- (opportunistic versus push)
• At times bridge gap between Economics and Financial viability – remote off grid areas (FATA) – Bilateral Program funded if SARI/E as implementer

[pakistanzindabaad]

Ethanol / Methanol production from crops is a crime against humanity (According to the UN)...

Did some research recently about solar/wind/bio waste because of the problems regarding the electricity...

there is definitely a market for wind generated electricity... There are areas in Pakistan where there is constant wind flow which makes the business worth the investment...

I think mahekma e mosamiaat has some studies and data upon the subject...

as far as solar goes; the average solar cell life is about 25 years... However, the amount of investment needed for a very small amount of electricity is phenominal...

I would need an estimated 9-12 lakh Rs (Maybe more) to turn my home to solar power... this doesnt include air conditioners... But, 25 years are still 25 years... and it is worth it...

If you turn your home lights to LEDs; you can make a considerable dent to your bill... But again, you'll need to rewire the whole place up...

[PakShaheen]

PakistanZindabad
--------------------

Bro I have dig some data with regard of wind Energy. And i am not that impressed by this tech as i was thinking about it. Here is what Paksitan Met department has to say....read carefully the figures in bold

Wind Energy is clean & renewable source of energy and is also the world’s fastest growing energy resource.

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) with the financial collaboration of Ministry of Science & Technology (MoST), has completed its project entitled “Wind Power Potential Survey of Coastal Areas of Pakistan (Phase-I)” in June 2005.

Phase-II consisting of Wind Mapping of Northern Areas of Pakistan is own going since July 2005.

The demand for energy has increased in tremendous proportions in the last few decades in Pakistan; the same is expected to increase further in the coming years. The primary sources of energy available in Pakistan are oil, natural gas, hydro and nuclear Power. At present oil accounts for approximately 45% of total commercial energy supply. The share of natural gas is 34% while that of hydel power remains roughly at 15%. The increase in cost of fossil fuel and the various environmental problems of large scale power generation have lead to increased appreciation of the potential of electricity generation from non-conventional sources. This has provided the planners and economists to find out other low cost energy resources.

Wind and Solar energies are the possible clean and low cost renewable resources available in the country. The potential, for the use of alternative technologies, has never been fully explored in Pakistan. Wind power provides opportunity to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuel and at the same time expands the power supply capacity to remote locations where grid expansion is not practical.

Recently conducted survey of Wind Power Potential along coastal areas of the country by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), indicates that a potential exists for harvesting wind energy using currently available technologies, especially along Sindh coast.

Gharo, one of the sites in Sindh where the wind data have been recorded and studied by PMD, has been selected for this feasibility study. The wind measurements at Gharo have been carried out during 24 months period. The annual mean wind speed is estimated to be 6.86m/s at 50 meter above ground level. The annual power density of area is 408.6 W/m2, which bring the site into good category of power potential, which means this area is suitable for large economically viable wind farm.

Using the measured wind data the annual gross energy production by an 18 MW wind farm consisting of thirty – 600 kW turbines will be 45 million kWh. Taking into account the wind turbine availability, net losses and wake effects in the wind farm the net annual energy production is estimated to 31 million kWh per year corresponding to a capacity factor of 28%.

The total investment will be Rs: 850 million and pay back period will be 7-8 years. The capital cost of wind power projects ranges Rs 4 to 5 crore per MW. This gives a levelised cost of wind energy generation in the range of Rs: 2.50 to 3.00 per kWh, taking into consideration the fiscal benefits extended by the government.

Wind Power Production

There are two terms to describe basic electricity production.

1. Efficiency,

2. Capacity factor.

Efficiency refers to how much useful energy (electricity, in this case) we can get from an energy source. A 100 percent energy efficient machine would change all the energy put into it into useful energy. It would not waste any energy. There is no such thing as a 100 percent energy efficient machine. Some energy is always lost or wasted when one form of energy is converted to another. The lost energy is usually in the form of heat, which dissipates into the air and cannot be used again economically. How efficient are wind machines? Wind machines are just as efficient as most other plants, such as coal plants. Wind machines convert 30-40 percent of the wind’s kinetic energy into electricity. A coal-fired power plant converts about 30-35 percent of the chemical energy in coal into usable electricity.

Capacity refers to the capability of a power plant to produce electricity. A power plant with a 100 percent capacity rating would run all day, every day at full power. There would be no down time for repairs or refueling, an impossible goal for any plant. Coal plants typically have a 75 percent capacity rating since they can run day or night, during any season of the year.

Wind power plants are different from power plants that burn fuel. Wind plants depend on the availability of wind, as well as the speed of the wind. Therefore, wind machines cannot operate 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. A wind turbine at a typical wind farm operates 65-80 percent of the time, but usually at less than full capacity, because the wind speed is not at optimum levels. Therefore, its capacity factor is 30-35 percent. Economics also plays a large part in the capacity of wind machines. Winds machines can be built that have much higher capacity factors, but it is not economical to do so. The decision is based on electricity output per dollar of investment.

Capacity Factor

The annual energy output from a wind turbine is to look at the capacity factor for the turbine in its particular location. By capacity factor we mean its actual annual energy output divided by the theoretical maximum output, if the machine were running at its rated (maximum) power during all of the 8766 hours of the year.

Example:

If a 600 kW turbine produces 1.5 million kWh in a year

its capacity factor is = 1500000: (365.25 * 24 * 600) = 1500000: 5259600 = 0.285 = 28.5 per cent.

Capacity factors may theoretically vary from 0 to 100 per cent, but in practice they will usually range from 20 to 70 per cent, and mostly be around 25-30 per cent.

http://www.pakmet.co...nd_Project.html

And here is total potential of this to be used.

[pakistanzindabaad]

As far as i knew; they were still doing the research on the mapping project...

The article says that mapping is complete for the coastal areas... I know someone who does the renewable energy business in lahore... he's the only guy providing chinese solar panels idher...

Fact of the matter is that energy generation using renewables is no longer an just an option for us... necessity hay...

We have to start investing... India hamaray hi rivers ki capacity ko already harvest ker raha hay... hindu 100 saal ki sochta hay...

hamaray ooper sey museebat guzar geyi hay aur hamain koi khiaal nahin... bohut afsos ki baat hay hum sub k liye...

[PakShaheen]

Yeah you are right though! We will have to invest in renewable energy. I think we must also accelerate Thar Coal projects as well. Any idea what is progress there?

[omarxizt]

PakShaheen: Excellent reserach... I will put this on my survey report which will be released later this year.